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Next-token prediction with the logarithmic loss is a cornerstone of autoregressive sequence modeling, but, in practice, suffers from error amplification, where errors in the model compound and generation quality degrades as sequence length…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Dhruv Rohatgi , Adam Block , Audrey Huang , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Dylan J. Foster

Why do modern language models, trained to do well on next-word prediction, appear to generate coherent documents and capture long-range structure? Here we show that next-token prediction is provably powerful for learning longer-range…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Xinyuan Cao , Santosh S. Vempala

Ensembles are popular methods for solving practical supervised learning problems. They reduce the risk of having underperforming models in production-grade software. Although critical, methods for learning heterogeneous regression ensembles…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-18 Jihed Khiari , Luis Moreira-Matias , Ammar Shaker , Bernard Zenko , Saso Dzeroski

Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained with next-token prediction, implemented in autoregressive Transformers via causal masking for parallelism. This creates a subtle misalignment: residual connections tie activations to the current…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Jonathan Lys , Vincent Gripon , Bastien Pasdeloup , Axel Marmoret , Lukas Mauch , Fabien Cardinaux , Ghouthi Boukli Hacene

What happens to the optimal interpretation of noisy data when there exists more than one equally plausible interpretation of the data? In a Bayesian model-learning framework the answer depends on the prior expectations of the dynamics of…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Gurinder Singh Atwal , William Bialek

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We build a theoretical framework for designing and understanding practical meta-learning methods that integrates sophisticated formalizations of task-similarity with the extensive literature on online convex optimization and sequential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Mikhail Khodak , Maria-Florina Balcan , Ameet Talwalkar

In many sequential tasks, a model needs to remember relevant events from the distant past to make correct predictions. Unfortunately, a straightforward application of gradient based training requires intermediate computations to be stored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Artyom Sorokin , Nazar Buzun , Leonid Pugachev , Mikhail Burtsev

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…

The deployment of pre-trained perception models in novel environments often leads to performance degradation due to distributional shifts. Although recent artificial intelligence approaches for metacognition use logical rules to…

Artificial intelligence nowadays plays an increasingly prominent role in our life since decisions that were once made by humans are now delegated to automated systems. A machine learning algorithm trained based on biased data, however,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Chen Zhao , Changbin Li , Jincheng Li , Feng Chen

Meta-learning can successfully acquire useful inductive biases from data. Yet, its generalization properties to unseen learning tasks are poorly understood. Particularly if the number of meta-training tasks is small, this raises concerns…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-21 Jonas Rothfuss , Vincent Fortuin , Martin Josifoski , Andreas Krause

Autoregressive language models are constrained by their inherently sequential nature, generating one token at a time. This paradigm limits inference speed and parallelism, especially during later stages of generation when the direction and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Mohammad Samragh , Arnav Kundu , David Harrison , Kumari Nishu , Devang Naik , Minsik Cho , Mehrdad Farajtabar

Some autoregressive models exhibit in-context learning capabilities: being able to learn as an input sequence is processed, without undergoing any parameter changes, and without being explicitly trained to do so. The origins of this…

When data are scarce meta-learning can improve a learner's accuracy by harnessing previous experience from related learning tasks. However, existing methods have unreliable uncertainty estimates which are often overconfident. Addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Jonas Rothfuss , Dominique Heyn , Jinfan Chen , Andreas Krause

We propose Bayesian optimal sequential prediction as a new principle for understanding in-context learning (ICL). Unlike interpretations framing Transformers as performing implicit gradient descent, we formalize ICL as meta-learning over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Di Zhang , Jiaqi Xing

We propose a new model for multi-token prediction in transformers, aiming to enhance sampling efficiency without compromising accuracy. Motivated by recent work that predicts the probabilities of subsequent tokens using multiple heads, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Artem Basharin , Andrei Chertkov , Ivan Oseledets

We introduce a new framework for studying meta-learning methods using PAC-Bayesian theory. Its main advantage over previous work is that it allows for more flexibility in how the transfer of knowledge between tasks is realized. For previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Hossein Zakerinia , Amin Behjati , Christoph H. Lampert

We study the problem of meta-learning through the lens of online convex optimization, developing a meta-algorithm bridging the gap between popular gradient-based meta-learning and classical regularization-based multi-task transfer methods.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Mikhail Khodak , Maria-Florina Balcan , Ameet Talwalkar

Meta-learning enables learning systems to adapt quickly to new tasks, similar to humans. Different meta-learning approaches all work under/with the mini-batch episodic training framework. Such framework naturally gives the information about…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Shiguang Wu , Yaqing Wang , Yatao Bian , Quanming Yao