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Dynamic and temporal graphs are rich data structures that are used to model complex relationships between entities over time. In particular, anomaly detection in temporal graphs is crucial for many real world applications such as intrusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Shenyang Huang , Yasmeen Hitti , Guillaume Rabusseau , Reihaneh Rabbany

We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art in the area of sequential change-point detection assuming discrete time and known pre- and post-change distributions. The overview spans over all major formulations of the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-21 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We investigate sequential change point estimation and detection in univariate nonparametric settings, where a stream of independent observations from sub-Gaussian distributions with a common variance factor and piecewise-constant but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-16 Yi Yu , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

Motivated by an increasing demand for models that can effectively describe features of complex multivariate time series, e.g. from sensor data in biomechanics, motion analysis, and sports science, we introduce a novel state-space modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Alice Giampino , Bernardo Nipoti , Marina Vannucci , Michele Guindani

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-29 Changliang Zou , Guosheng Yin , Long Feng , Zhaojun Wang

This paper addresses the problem of change-point detection on sequences of high-dimensional and heterogeneous observations, which also possess a periodic temporal structure. Due to the dimensionality problem, when the time between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-25 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , David Ramírez , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

In this paper, we study the offline change point localization problem in a sequence of dependent nonparametric random dot product graphs. To be specific, assume that at every time point, a network is generated from a nonparametric random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-16 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Carey E. Priebe

A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Valentinian Lungu , Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-12-14 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…

Computation · Statistics 2009-10-19 Paul Fearnhead , Zhen Liu

We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-31 Otilia Boldea , Alastair R. Hall

In this work, we explore modeling change points in time-series data using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs). We propose a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder (VAE)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yousef El-Laham , Zhongchang Sun , Haibei Zhu , Tucker Balch , Svitlana Vyetrenko

This paper introduces an algorithm for the detection of change-points and the identification of the corresponding subsequences in transient multivariate time-series data (MTSD). The analysis of such data has become more and more important…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-05 Jonas Köhne , Lars Henning , Clemens Gühmann

Multivariate data sources with components of different information value seem to appear frequently in practice. Models in which the components change their homogeneity at different times are of significant importance. The fact whether any…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Krzysztof Szajowski

We develop a supervised machine learning model that detects anomalies in systems in real time. Our model processes unbounded streams of data into time series which then form the basis of a low-latency anomaly detection model. Moreover, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-16 Derek Farren , Thai Pham , Marco Alban-Hidalgo

This paper investigates sequential change-point detection in reconfigurable sensor networks. In this problem, data from multiple sensors are observed sequentially. Each sensor can have a unique change point, and the data distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Seungwon Lee , Yunxiao Chen , Xiaoou Li

This paper proposes a novel methodology for the online detection of changepoints in the factor structure of large matrix time series. Our approach is based on the well-known fact that, in the presence of a changepoint, a factor model can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-28 Yong He , Xin-bing Kong , Lorenzo Trapani , Long Yu

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Haoxuan Wu , Toryn L. J. Schafer , Sean Ryan , David S. Matteson

Complex systems which can be represented in the form of static and dynamic graphs arise in different fields, e.g. communication, engineering and industry. One of the interesting problems in analysing dynamic network structures is to monitor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Anna Malinovskaya , Philipp Otto , Torben Peters

A change point problem occurs in many statistical applications. If there exist change points in a model, it is harmful to make a statistical analysis without any consideration of the existence of the change points and the results derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-24 Xiaoping Shi , Yuehua Wu , Baisuo Jin