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We explore the dependence structure in the sampled sequence of large networks. We consider randomized algorithms to sample the nodes and study extremal properties in any associated stationary sequence of characteristics of interest like…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Natalia M. Markovich , Jithin K. Sreedharan

When analysing extreme values, two alternative statistical approaches have historically been held in contention: the block maxima method (or annual maxima method, spurred by hydrological applications) and the peaks-over-threshold. Clamoured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Claudia Neves , Chang Xu

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 Evan Arsenault , Yuheng Wang , Margaret P. Chapman

In this paper, we propose a reduced-bias estimator of the EVI for Pareto-type tails (heavy-tailed) distributions. This is derived using the weighted least squares method. It is shown that the estimator is unbiased, consistent and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 E. Ocran , R. Minkah , K. Doku-Amponsah

The block maxima (BM) approach in extreme value analysis fits a sample of block maxima to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We consider all potential blocks from a sample, which leads to the All Block Maxima (ABM) estimator.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Jochem Oorschot , Chen Zhou

Estimating the parameters of max-stable parametric models poses significant challenges, particularly when some parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space. This situation arises when a subset of variables exhibits extreme values…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Anas Mourahib , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers

The core of the classical block maxima method consists of fitting an extreme value distribution to a sample of maxima over blocks extracted from an underlying series. In asymptotic theory, it is usually postulated that the block maxima are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-09 Axel Bücher , Johan Segers

The analysis of seasonal or annual block maxima is of interest in fields such as hydrology, climatology or meteorology. In connection with the celebrated method of block maxima, we study several tests that can be used to assess whether the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-22 Ivan Kojadinovic , Philippe Naveau

This article summarises the methods used by the team ``Ca' Foscari" for the EVA 2025 Data Challenge. The questions of the challenge concern the estimation of exceedance probabilities across several locations. Rather than modelling the…

Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Nicolas Lafon , Philippe Naveau , Ronan Fablet

Missing data occur in a variety of applications of extreme value analysis. In the block maxima approach to an extreme value analysis, missingness is often handled by either ignoring missing observations or dropping a block of observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 James H. McVittie , Orla A. Murphy

We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Jose Blanchet , Fei He , Karthyek R. A. Murthy

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-05 Ali Reza Fotouhi

This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 john cotter

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Shanyin Tong , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Georg Stadler

In recent environmental studies extreme events have a great impact. The yearly and monthly maxima of environment related indices can be analysed by the tools of extreme value theory. For instance, the monthly maxima of the fire weather…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-20 László Németh , Zuzana Hübnerová , András Zempléni

The block maxima method is one of the most popular approaches for extreme value analysis with independent and identically distributed observations in the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. The lack of a rigorous study on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Simone A Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

We introduce and study Multi-Quantile estimators for the parameters $( \xi, \sigma, \mu)$ of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to provide a robust approach to extreme value modeling. Unlike classical estimators, such as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-03 Sen Lin , Ao Kong , Robert Azencott

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-26 Amina El Bernoussi , Mohamed El Arrouchi