Related papers: Detection, attribution, and modeling of climate ch…
Understanding the earth's climate system and how it might be changing is a preeminent scientific challenge. Global climate models are used to simulate past, present, and future climates, and experiments are executed continuously on an array…
We analyze the PCMDI/CMIP3 simulations performed by climate models (CMs) using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios. Relatively large biases are present for most CMs when global energy budgets and when the atmospheric, oceanic, and land…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the primary tools for investigating future Earth system states at time scales from decades to centuries, especially in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. State-of-the-art ESMs can reproduce the…
Developing environmentally sustainable refrigerants is critical for mitigating the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on global warming. This study presents a predictive modeling framework to estimate the 100-year global warming…
Global storm-resolving models aspire to become digital twins of the Earth, delivering information at the local scale at which humans experience climate. We evaluated how well two such models, ICON and IFS-FESOM, reproduce the climate as…
Probabilistic projections of baseline (with no additional mitigation policies) future carbon emissions are important for sound climate risk assessments. Deep uncertainty surrounds many drivers of projected emissions. Here we use a simple…
The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource used here to evaluate surface and upper ocean variables from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) Our analysis reveals general improvement…
CO$_2$-forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar-amplified in the Arctic but not Antarctic -- a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and eleven LongRunMIP GCMs…
The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as…
Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
Even if their detection is for now challenging, observation of small terrestrial planets will be easier in a near future thanks to continuous improvements of detection and characterisation instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a…
Accurate, high-resolution projections of the Greenland ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) and surface temperature are essential for understanding future sea-level rise, yet current approaches are either computationally demanding or…
Geography, including climatic factors, have long been considered potentially important elements in shaping socio-economic activities, alongside other determinants, such as institutions. Here we demonstrate that geography and climate…
Mitigation of climate change will highly rely on a carbon emission trajectory that achieves carbon neutrality by the 2050s. The ocean plays a critical role in modulating climate change by sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Relying on the…
How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…
Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms…
Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk…
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on…