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We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Dawid Bernaciak , Jim E. Griffin

The moving average of the complex modulus of the analytic wavelet transform provides a robust time-scale representation for signals to small time shifts and deformation. In this work, we derive the Wiener chaos expansion of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Gi-Ren Liu , Yuan-Chung Sheu , Hau-Tieng Wu

We study the poor-biased model for money exchange introduced in [2]: agents are being randomly picked at a rate proportional to their current wealth, and then the selected agent gives a dollar to another agent picked uniformly at random.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-15 Roberto Cortez , Fei Cao

We conjecture the universal probability distribution at large time for the one-point height in the 1D Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) stochastic growth universality class, with initial conditions interpolating from any one of the three main…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-06-07 Pierre Le Doussal

A novel variational inference based resampling framework is proposed to evaluate the robustness and generalization capability of deep learning models with respect to distribution shift. We use Auto Encoding Variational Bayes to find a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Xudong Sun , Alexej Gossmann , Yu Wang , Bernd Bischl

We investigate the uniform reshuffling model for money exchanges: two agents picked uniformly at random redistribute their dollars between them. This stochastic dynamics is of mean-field type and eventually leads to a exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Fei Cao , Pierre-Emmanuel Jabin , Sebastien Motsch

We propose a generalized framework for the study of voter models in complex networks at the the heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) level that (i) yields a unified picture for existing copy/invasion processes and (ii) allows for the introduction…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-03-20 Paolo Moretti , Suyu Liu , Andrea Baronchelli , Romualdo Pastor-Satorras

In this paper, the Glauber dynamics for the Ising model on the complete multipartite graph $K_{np_1,\dots,np_m}$ is investigated where $0<p_i<1$ is the proportion of the vertices in the $i$th component. We show that the dynamics exhibits…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Heejune Kim

This paper presents a generalization of the Wasserstein distance for both persistence diagrams and merge trees [20], [66] that takes advantage of the regions of their topological features in the input domain. Specifically, we redefine the…

Graphics · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Mathieu Pont , Christoph Garth

We develop a unified theory that encompasses the macroscopic dynamics of recurrent interactions of binary units within arbitrary network architectures. Using the martingale theory, our mathematical analysis provides a complete description…

Biological Physics · Physics 2017-11-22 Farzad Farkhooi , Wilhelm Stannat

The cutoff phenomenon describes the case when an abrupt transition occurs in the convergence of a Markov chain to its equilibrium measure. There are various metrics which can be used to measure the distance to equilibrium, each of which…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-29 Jonathan Hermon , Hubert Lacoin , Yuval Peres

We study the Swendsen-Wang dynamics for the $q$-state Potts model on the lattice. Introduced as an alternative algorithm of the classical single-site Glauber dynamics, the Swendsen-Wang dynamics is a non-local Markov chain that recolors…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-03 Danny Nam , Allan Sly

We develop further the approach to upper and lower bounds in quantum dynamics via complex analysis methods which was introduced by us in a sequence of earlier papers. Here we derive upper bounds for non-time averaged outside probabilities…

Spectral Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-30 David Damanik , Serguei Tcheremchantsev

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Andrea Nigri , Marco Forti , Han Lin Shang

We study a class of Markov chains that describe reversible stochastic dynamics of a large class of disordered mean field models at low temperatures. Our main purpose is to give a precise relation between the metastable time scales in the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2016-08-31 A. Bovier , M. Eckhoff , V. Gayrard , M. Klein

We consider the simple exclusion process with $k$ particles on a segment of length $N$ performing random walks with transition $p>1/2$ to the right and $q=1-p$ to the left. We focus on the case where the asymmetry in the jump rates…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-01 C. Labbé , H. Lacoin

We break the mold in flow-based generative modeling by proposing a new model based on the damped wave equation, also known as telegrapher's equation. Similar to the diffusion equation and Brownian motion, there is a Feynman-Kac type…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Richard Duong , Jannis Chemseddine , Peter K. Friz , Gabriele Steidl

This paper investigates an expected average error for distributed averaging problems under asynchronous updates. The asynchronism in this context implies no existence of a global clock as well as random characteristics in communication…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-04 Kooktae Lee

We study the cutoff phenomenon for generalized riffle shuffles where, at each step, the deck of cards is cut into a random number of packs of multinomial sizes which are then riffled together.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Guan-Yu Chen , Laurent Saloff-Coste

Recent theoretical studies have predicted the existence of caustics in many-body quantum dynamics, where they manifest as extended regions of enhanced probability density that obey temporal and spatial scaling relations. Focusing on the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-10-10 Monalisa Singh Roy , Jesse Mumford , D. H. J. O'Dell , Emanuele G. Dalla Torre
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