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This article considers inference in linear instrumental variables models with many regressors, all of which could be endogenous. We propose the STIV estimator. Identification robust confidence sets are derived by solving linear programs. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-09 Eric Gautier , Christiern Rose

Gene expression and phenotype association can be affected by potential unmeasured confounders from multiple sources, leading to biased estimates of the associations. Since genetic variants largely explain gene expression variations, they…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-23 Jiarui Lu , Hongzhe Li

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Anna Baiardi , Paul S. Clarke , Andrea A. Naghi , Annalivia Polselli

We develop results for the use of Lasso and Post-Lasso methods to form first-stage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments, $p$. Our results apply even when $p$ is much…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Daniel Chen , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses are becoming common in health services research and epidemiology. Most IV analyses use naturally occurring instruments, such as distance to a hospital. In these analyses, investigators must assume the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-04 Zach Branson , Luke Keele

The validity of instrumental variable (IV) designs is typically tested using two types of falsification tests. We characterize these tests as conditional independence tests between negative control variables -- proxies for unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-29 Oren Danieli , Daniel Nevo , Itai Walk , Bar Weinstein , Dan Zeltzer

Instrumental variables (eliminate the bias that afflicts least-squares identification of dynamical systems through noisy data, yet traditionally relies on external instruments that are seldom available for nonlinear time series data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

Linear instrumental variable regressions are widely used to estimate causal effects. Many instruments arise from the use of ``technical'' instruments and more recently from the empirical strategy of ``judge design''. This paper surveys and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-26 Anna Mikusheva , Liyang Sun

In offline reinforcement learning (RL) an optimal policy is learned solely from a priori collected observational data. However, in observational data, actions are often confounded by unobserved variables. Instrumental variables (IVs), in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-16 Luofeng Liao , Zuyue Fu , Zhuoran Yang , Yixin Wang , Mladen Kolar , Zhaoran Wang

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding between exposure and outcome. An IV must affect the outcome exclusively through the exposure and be unconfounded with the…

Model-Implied Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Squares (MIIV-2SLS) is a limited information, equation-by-equation, non-iterative estimator for latent variable models. Associated with this estimator are equation specific tests of model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-17 Teague R. Henry , Zachary F. Fisher , Kenneth A. Bollen

In this note, we propose to use sparse methods (e.g. LASSO, Post-LASSO, sqrt-LASSO, and Post-sqrt-LASSO) to form first-stage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

For the over-identified linear instrumental variables model, researchers commonly report the 2SLS estimate along with the robust standard error and seek to conduct inference with these quantities. If errors are homoskedastic, one can…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 David S. Lee , Justin McCrary , Marcelo J. Moreira , Jack Porter , Luther Yap

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Jason Hartford , Victor Veitch , Dhanya Sridhar , Kevin Leyton-Brown

This paper proposes an estimator that relaxes the conventional relevance condition in instrumental variable (IV) analyses. The method allows endogenous covariates to be weakly correlated, uncorrelated, or even mean-independent -- though not…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo , Abdul-Nasah Soale

Exogenous heterogeneity, for example, in the form of instrumental variables can help us learn a system's underlying causal structure and predict the outcome of unseen intervention experiments. In this paper, we consider linear models in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-21 Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Researchers faced with a sequence of candidate model specifications must often choose the best specification that does not violate a testable identification assumption. One option in this scenario is sequential specification tests:…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Adam C. Sales

In a causal graphical model, an instrument for a variable X and its effect Y is a random variable that is a cause of X and independent of all the causes of Y except X. (Pearl (1995), Spirtes et al (2000)). Instrumental variables can be used…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-14 Tianjiao Chu , Richard Scheines , Peter L. Spirtes

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele