Related papers: Implied Probabilities and Volatility in Credit Ris…
We introduce a fairly general, recombining trinomial tree model in the natural world. Market-completeness is ensured by considering a market consisting of two risky assets, a riskless asset, and a European option. The two risky assets…
In the paper written by Klibanov et al, it proposes a novel method to calculate implied volatility of a European stock options as a solution to ill-posed inverse problem for the Black-Scholes equation. In addition, it proposes a trading…
This paper presents a new model for options pricing. The Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model plays an important role in financial options pricing. However, the BSM model assumes that the risk-free interest rate, volatility, and equity premium…
We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabilities. In particular, futures imply returns for these implied…
Economic and financial theories and practice essentially deal with uncertain future. Humans encounter uncertainty in different kinds of activity, from sensory-motor control to dynamics in financial markets, what has been subject of…
This paper examines the possibility of using derivative-implied risk premia to explain stock returns. The rapid development of derivative markets has led to the possibility of trading various kinds of risks, such as credit and interest rate…
This paper is a contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop Complexity, Metastability and Nonextensivity held in Erice 20-26 July 2004, to be published by World Scientific. We propose a generalization to Merton's model for evaluating…
We apply path integration techniques to obtain option pricing with stochastic volatility using a generalized Black-Scholes equation known as the Merton and Garman equation. We numerically simulate the option prices using the technique of…
The implied volatility is a crucial element of any financial toolbox, since it is used for quoting and the hedging of options as well as for model calibration. In contrast to the Black-Scholes formula its inverse, the implied volatility, is…
Black-Scholes implied volatility is a quantile. The insight follows from the normalized option price being a probability on the variance scale, with the inverse Gaussian distribution providing the link. It enables analytically exact and…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
We present a unified, market-complete model that integrates both the Bachelier and Black-Scholes-Merton frameworks for asset pricing. The model allows for the study, within a unified framework, of asset pricing in a natural world that…
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be…
The objective of this paper is to introduce the theory of option pricing for markets with informed traders within the framework of dynamic asset pricing theory. We introduce new models for option pricing for informed traders in complete…
A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov…
We investigate whether it is possible to formulate option pricing and hedging models without using probability. We present a model that is consistent with two notions of volatility: a historical volatility consistent with statistical…
We extend the application of the Cherny-Shiryaev-Yor invariance principle to a unified Bachelier-Black-Scholes-Merton (BBSM) dynamic pricing model. This extension incorporates the influence of the history of the dynamics (i.e., the path…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
In this paper, we propose a novel methodology for pricing equity-indexed annuities featuring cliquet-style payoff structures and early surrender risk, using advanced financial modeling techniques. Specifically, the market is modeled by an…
A new method is proposed to obtain the risk neutral probability of share prices without stochastic calculus and price modeling, via an embedding of the price return modeling problem in Le Cam's statistical experiments framework.…