Related papers: Small Volatility Approximation and Multi-Factor HJ…
Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribution. We address the question of how to adjust these…
This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…
Dimension reduction is often the first step in statistical modeling or prediction of multivariate spatial data. However, most existing dimension reduction techniques do not account for the spatial correlation between observations and do not…
Estimation of the mean vector and covariance matrix is of central importance in the analysis of multivariate data. In the framework of generalized linear models, usually the variances are certain functions of the means with the normal…
Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on Factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices…
We consider a dynamic portfolio optimization problem that incorporates predictable returns, instantaneous transaction costs, price impact, and stochastic volatility, extending the classical results of Garleanu and Pedersen (2013), which…
A general methodology is presented for the construction and effective use of control variates for reversible MCMC samplers. The values of the coefficients of the optimal linear combination of the control variates are computed, and adaptive,…
In observational studies, accurately characterizing variance is critical for sample size determination, yet unaccounted-for variability from propensity score estimation and the resulting weights limit the accuracy of standard variance…
In a financial market model, we consider the variance-optimal semi-static hedging of a given contingent claim, a generalization of the classic variance-optimal hedging. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error…
The joint modeling of mean and dispersion (JMMD) provides an efficient method to obtain useful models for the mean and dispersion, especially in problems of robust design experiments. However, in the literature on JMMD there are few works…
Through the lense of multilevel model (MLM) specification and regularization, this is a connect-the-dots introductory summary of Small Area Estimation, e.g. small group prediction informed by a complex sampling design. While a comprehensive…
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability…
This paper considers inference for a function of a parameter vector in a partially identified model with many moment inequalities. This framework allows the number of moment conditions to grow with the sample size, possibly at exponential…
In the context of the usual calibration model, we consider the case in which the independent variable is unobservable, but a pre-fixed value on its surrogate is available. Thus, considering controlled variables and assuming that the…
Reliably characterizing the full conditional distribution of a multivariate response variable given a set of covariates is crucial for trustworthy decision-making. However, misspecified or miscalibrated multivariate models may yield a poor…
Recent work has uncovered promising ways to extract well-calibrated confidence estimates from language models (LMs), where the model's confidence score reflects how likely it is to be correct. However, while LMs may appear well-calibrated…
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions…
This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…
A multi-factor extension of the Hobson and Rogers (HR) model, incorporating a quadratic variance function (QHR model), is proposed and analysed. The QHR model allows for greater flexibility in defining the moving average filter while…
In this paper, we introduce a novel high-dimensional Factor-Adjusted sparse Partially Linear regression Model (FAPLM), to integrate the linear effects of high-dimensional latent factors with the nonparametric effects of low-dimensional…