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With reference to a binary outcome and a binary mediator, we derive identification bounds for natural effects under a reduced set of assumptions. Specifically, no assumptions about confounding are made that involve the outcome; we only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Marco Doretti , Elena Stanghellini

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Sharp bounds on partially identified parameters are often given by the values of linear programs (LPs). This paper introduces a novel estimator of the LP value. Unlike existing procedures, our estimator is root-n-consistent, pointwise in…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-20 Andrei Voronin

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Joel L. Horowitz , Sokbae Lee

I develop a methodology to partially identify linear combinations of conditional mean outcomes when the researcher only has access to aggregate data. Unlike the existing literature, I only allow for marginal, not joint, distributions of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-04 Sarah Moon

I study partial identification of distributional parameters in triangular systems. This model consists of a nonparametric outcome equation and a selection equation. This allows for general unobserved heterogeneity and selection on…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-11 Ju Hyun Kim

We introduce a new method for estimating the mean of an outcome variable within groups when researchers only observe the average of the outcome and group indicators across a set of aggregation units, such as geographical areas. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Cory McCartan , Shiro Kuriwaki

Popular debiased estimation methods for causal inference -- such as augmented inverse propensity weighting and targeted maximum likelihood estimation -- enjoy desirable asymptotic properties like statistical efficiency and double robustness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Tiffany Tianhui Cai , Yuri Fonseca , Kaiwen Hou , Hongseok Namkoong

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonghan Jung , Bogyeong Kang

We provide explicit, finite-sample guarantees for learning causal representations from data with a sublinear number of environments. Causal representation learning seeks to provide a rigourous foundation for the general representation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-30 Inbeom Lee , Tongtong Jin , Bryon Aragam

This paper addresses two central problems for probabilistic processing models: parameter estimation from incomplete data and efficient retrieval of most probable analyses. These questions have been answered satisfactorily only for…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Stefan Riezler

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

In this paper, we study the estimation of partially linear models for spatial data distributed over complex domains. We use bivariate splines over triangulations to represent the nonparametric component on an irregular two-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Li Wang , Guannan Wang , Min-Jun Lai , Lei Gao

This paper studies an integrated learning and optimization problem in which a prediction model estimates the right-hand-side parameters of a linear program (LP) using a contextual vector. Considering that such a prediction alters the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Jackson Forner , Miju Ahn , Harsha Gangammanavar

The performance of algorithmic decision rules is largely dependent on the quality of training datasets available to them. Biases in these datasets can raise economic and ethical concerns due to the resulting algorithms' disparate treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Yifan Yang , Yang Liu , Parinaz Naghizadeh

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

In some multivariate problems with missing data, pairs of variables exist that are never observed together. For example, some modern biological tools can produce data of this form. As a result of this structure, the covariance matrix is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-13 Max Grazier G'Sell , Shai S. Shen-Orr , Robert Tibshirani

Over the past years, inverse problems in partial differential equations have garnered increasing interest among scientists and engineers. However, due to the lack of conventional stability, nonlinearity and non-convexity, these problems are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Feng Chen , Kegan Li , Yiran Meng , Zhiyi Xiao , Pengqi Wu

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Susan Athey , Stefan Wager