Related papers: Resilience Measures for the Surrogate Paradox

In meta-analytic modeling, the functional relationship between a primary and surrogate endpoint is estimated using summary data from a set of completed clinical trials. Parameters in the meta-analytic model are used to assess the quality of…

Mediation analysis is a useful tool to evaluate surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We propose a novel method, the M-survival learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect treatment effects in the presence of censored outcomes. The…

In modern clinical trials, there is immense pressure to use surrogate markers in place of an expensive or long-term primary outcome to make more timely decisions about treatment effectiveness. However, using a surrogate marker to test for a…

In many experimental and observational studies, the outcome of interest is often difficult or expensive to observe, reducing effective sample sizes for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) even when identifiable. We study how…

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…

The use of valid surrogate endpoints is an important stake in clinical research to help reduce both the duration and cost of a clinical trial and speed up the evaluation of interesting treatments. Several methods have been proposed in the…

In many decision-making problems, the primary outcome is expensive, time-consuming, or difficult to observe, so individualized treatment rules (ITRs) may be instead learned from surrogate endpoints. However, a surrogate that is highly…

Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final clinical outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. Such endpoints are assessed for their…

Identification of causal effects is one of the most fundamental tasks of causal inference. We consider an identifiability problem where some experimental and observational data are available but neither data alone is sufficient for the…

A common practice in clinical trials is to evaluate a treatment effect on an intermediate endpoint when the true outcome of interest would be difficult or costly to measure. We consider how to validate intermediate endpoints in a…

A surrogate endpoint S in a clinical trial is an outcome that may be measured earlier or more easily than the true outcome of interest T. In this work, we extend causal inference approaches to validate such a surrogate using potential…

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an…

Trial level surrogates are useful tools for improving the speed and cost effectiveness of trials, but surrogates that have not been properly evaluated can cause misleading results. The evaluation procedure is often contextual and depends on…

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

Online media platforms often need to measure how frequently users are exposed to specific content attributes in order to evaluate trade-offs in A/B experiments. A direct approach is to sample content, label it using a high-quality rubric…

Surrogate models provide compact relations between user-defined input parameters and output quantities of interest, enabling the efficient evaluation of complex parametric systems in many-query settings. Such capabilities are essential in a…

Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures are increasingly collected as a means of measuring healthcare quality and value. The capability to predict such measures enables patient-provider shared decision making and the delivery of…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

In many empirical settings, directly observing a treatment variable may be infeasible although an error-prone surrogate measurement of the latter will often be available. Causal inference based solely on the surrogate measurement is…

The Consistency property between surrogate losses and evaluation metrics has been extensively studied to ensure that minimizing a loss leads to metric optimality. However, the direct relationship between different evaluation metrics remains…