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We propose probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI), a novel probabilistic framework to model and infer sufficient statistics of feature attributions in flexible predictive models, via latent random variables whose mean recovers Shapley…

Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely…

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Model counting of Disjunctive Normal Form (DNF) formulas is a critical problem in applications such as probabilistic inference and network reliability. For example, it is often used for query evaluation in probabilistic databases. Due to…

In the Large Language Model(LLM) reasoning scenario, people often estimate state value via Monte Carlo sampling. Though Monte Carlo estimation is an elegant method with less inductive bias, noise and errors are inevitably introduced due to…

Shapley values, originating in game theory and increasingly prominent in explainable AI, have been proposed to assess the contribution of facts in query answering over databases, along with other similar power indices such as Banzhaf…

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning and statistics for their flexibility and expressive power, yet their black-box nature limits adoption in high-stakes applications. Shapley value-based attribution methods such as SHAP, and…

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong capabilities in in-context learning, but verifying the correctness of their generated responses remains a challenge. Prior work has explored attribution at the sentence level, but these…

Probabilistic graphical models, such as Markov random fields (MRF), exploit dependencies among random variables to model a rich family of joint probability distributions. Sophisticated inference algorithms, such as belief propagation (BP),…

Extant "fast" algorithms for Monte Carlo confidence sets are limited to univariate shift parameters for the one-sample and two-sample problems using the sample mean as the test statistic; moreover, some do not converge reliably and most do…

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

Collaborative machine learning enables multiple data owners to jointly train models for improved predictive performance. However, ensuring incentive compatibility and fair contribution-based rewards remains a critical challenge. Prior work…

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values are one of the leading tools for interpreting machine learning models, with strong theoretical guarantees (consistency, local accuracy) and a wide availability of implementations and use cases.…

A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

Frequentist and likelihood methods of inference based on the multivariate skew-normal model encounter several technical difficulties with this model. In spite of the popularity of this class of densities, there are no broadly satisfactory…

Least squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by…

We investigate the use of a stratified sampling approach for LIME Image, a popular model-agnostic explainable AI method for computer vision tasks, in order to reduce the artifacts generated by typical Monte Carlo sampling. Such artifacts…

We present adaptive sequential SAA (sample average approximation) algorithms to solve large-scale two-stage stochastic linear programs. The iterative algorithm framework we propose is organized into \emph{outer} and \emph{inner} iterations…