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I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a semi-parametric regression model offering state-of-the-art performance on out-of-sample prediction. Despite this success, standard implementations of BART typically provide inaccurate…

Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used for causal inference. In many empirical applications, treatment effects vary substantially with covariates, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misleading conclusions, which…

We introduce \underline{F}actor-\underline{A}ugmented \underline{Ma}trix \underline{R}egression (FAMAR) to address the growing applications of matrix-variate data and their associated challenges, particularly with high-dimensionality and…

The linear varying coefficient models posits a linear relationship between an outcome and covariates in which the covariate effects are modeled as functions of additional effect modifiers. Despite a long history of study and use in…

Dealing with missing data poses significant challenges in predictive analysis, often leading to biased conclusions when oversimplified assumptions about the missing data process are made. In cases where the data are missing not at random…

Although it is an extremely effective, easy-to-use, and increasingly popular tool for nonparametric regression, the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model is limited by the fact that it can only produce discontinuous output.…

A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is defined by a VAR equation that captures lead-lag correlations amongst a set of observed variables $X$ and latent factors $F$, and a calibration equation that relates another set of…

We apply Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) principles to training an ensemble of small neural networks for regression tasks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we sample from the posterior distribution of neural networks that have a…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a statistical sum of trees model. It can be considered a Bayesian version of machine learning tree ensemble methods where the individual trees are the base learners. However for data sets where…

Current implementations of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are based on axis-aligned decision rules that recursively partition the feature space using a single feature at a time. Several authors have demonstrated that oblique…

Medical prediction applications often need to deal with small sample sizes compared to the number of covariates. Such data pose problems for prediction and variable selection, especially when the covariate-response relationship is…

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

The effectiveness of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) has been demonstrated in a variety of contexts including non-parametric regression and classification. A BART scheme for estimating the intensity of inhomogeneous Poisson…

Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems, situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable based on some…

Ranking lists are often provided at regular time intervals in a range of applications, including economics, sports, marketing, and politics. Most popular methods for rank-order data postulate a linear specification for the latent scores,…

We incorporate heteroskedasticity into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) by modeling the log of the error variance parameter as a linear function of prespecified covariates. Under this scheme, the Gibbs sampling procedure for the…

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

Flow network models can capture the underlying physics and operational constraints of many networked systems including the power grid and transportation and water networks. However, analyzing reliability of systems using computationally…

Robust optimization provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, with broad applications in finance, engineering, and operations research. In portfolio optimization, uncertainty in expected returns and covariances…