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Estimating the sharing of genetic effects across different conditions is important to many statistical analyses of genomic data. The patterns of sharing arising from these data are often highly heterogeneous. To flexibly model these…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Yunqi Yang , Peter Carbonetto , David Gerard , Matthew Stephens

Model estimates obtained from traditional subspace identification methods may be subject to significant variance. This elevated variance is aggravated in the cases of large models or of a limited sample size. Common solutions to reduce the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-02 Alexandre Rodrigues Mesquita

We prove semi-empirical concentration inequalities for random variables which are given as possibly nonlinear functions of independent random variables. These inequalities describe concentration of random variable in terms of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Ilja Kuzborskij , Csaba Szepesvári

The Bayesian approach is effective for inverse problems. The posterior density distribution provides useful information of the unknowns. However, for problems with non-unique solutions, the classical estimators such as the maximum a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-31 Jiguang Sun

In this paper we have considered the problem of estimating the population mean in systematic sampling using information on an auxiliary variable in presence of non response. Some modified ratio, product and difference type estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-06 Hemant K. Verma , R. D. Singh , Rajesh Singh

To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Vojtech Kejzlar , Léo Neufcourt , Witold Nazarewicz

Black Box Variational Inference is a promising framework in a succession of recent efforts to make Variational Inference more ``black box". However, in basic version it either fails to converge due to instability or requires some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Dominic B. Dayta

The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-02-11 Arthur Guez , David Silver , Peter Dayan

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-03-14 Ryo Tamura , Koji Hukushima

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-09 Dhruva Kartik , Neeraj Sood , Urbashi Mitra , Tara Javidi

Parametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimators have been widely used in variety of fields including small area estimation, disease mapping. Since EB estimator is constructed by plugging in the estimator of parameters in prior distributions, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa

We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Yury Polyanskiy , Yihong Wu

Providing theoretical guarantees for parameter estimation in exponential random graph models is a largely open problem. While maximum likelihood estimation has theoretical guarantees in principle, verifying the assumptions for these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-26 Adrian Fischer , Gesine Reinert , Wenkai Xu

How can we precisely estimate a large language model's (LLM) accuracy on questions belonging to a specific topic within a larger question-answering dataset? The standard direct estimator, which averages the model's accuracy on the questions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Riccardo Fogliato , Pratik Patil , Nil-Jana Akpinar , Mathew Monfort

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

Approximate Bayesian computation performs approximate inference for models where likelihood computations are expensive or impossible. Instead simulations from the model are performed for various parameter values and accepted if they are…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-16 Dennis Prangle

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 M-Z. Spyropoulou , J. Hopker , J. E. Griffin

We explore the performance of sample average approximation in comparison with several other methods for stochastic optimization when there is information available on the underlying true probability distribution. The methods we evaluate are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-22 Eddie Anderson , Harrison Nguyen

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Empirical economists are often deterred from the application of fixed effects binary choice models mainly for two reasons: the incidental parameter problem and the computational challenge even in moderately large panels. Using the example…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-27 Daniel Czarnowske , Amrei Stammann