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We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

With access to large-scale, unlabeled medical datasets, researchers are confronted with two questions: Should they attempt to pretrain a custom foundation model on this medical data, or use transfer-learning from an existing generalist…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Jakob Ambsdorf , Asbjørn Munk , Sebastian Llambias , Anders Nymark Christensen , Kamil Mikolaj , Randall Balestriero , Martin Tolsgaard , Aasa Feragen , Mads Nielsen

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

Causal Transformers are trained to predict the next token for a given context. While it is widely accepted that self-attention is crucial for encoding the causal structure of sequences, the precise underlying mechanism behind this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Michael E. Sander , Gabriel Peyré

Continuous time Bayesian networks are investigated with a special focus on their ability to express causality. A framework is presented for doing inference in these networks. The central contributions are a representation of the intensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-26 Jonas Hallgren , Timo Koski

Causal inference in spatio-temporal settings is critically hindered by unmeasured confounders with complex spatio-temporal dynamics and the prevalence of multi-resolution data. While diffusion models present a promising avenue for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xinwen Liu , Lei Qian , Song Xi Chen , Niansheng Tang

Foundation models can be disruptive for future AI development by scaling up deep learning in terms of model size and training data's breadth and size. These models achieve state-of-the-art performance (often through further adaptation) on a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Johannes Schneider

One of the goals of causal inference is to generalize from past experiments and observational data to novel conditions. While it is in principle possible to eventually learn a mapping from a novel experimental condition to an outcome of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-10 Gecia Bravo-Hermsdorff , David S. Watson , Jialin Yu , Jakob Zeitler , Ricardo Silva

Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Frederik Hytting Jørgensen , Luigi Gresele , Sebastian Weichwald

Modeling event sequences of multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing dynamical rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 David Berghaus , Patrick Seifner , Kostadin Cvejoski , César Ojeda , Ramsés J. Sánchez

Conventional diffusion models typically relies on a fixed forward process, which implicitly defines complex marginal distributions over latent variables. This can often complicate the reverse process' task in learning generative…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Grigory Bartosh , Dmitry Vetrov , Christian A. Naesseth

Causal discovery from observational data is challenging, especially with large datasets and complex relationships. Traditional methods often struggle with scalability and capturing global structural information. To overcome these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

Functional data is a powerful tool for capturing and analyzing complex patterns and relationships in a variety of fields, allowing for more precise modeling, visualization, and decision-making. For example, in healthcare, functional data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Xiyuan Gao , Jiayi Wang , Guanyu Hu , Jianguo Sun

The need for function estimation in label-limited settings is common in the natural sciences. At the same time, prior knowledge of function values is often available in these domains. For example, data-free biophysics-based models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Hunter Nisonoff , Yixin Wang , Jennifer Listgarten

Foundation models (FMs) are catalyzing a transformative shift in materials science (MatSci) by enabling scalable, general-purpose, and multimodal AI systems for scientific discovery. Unlike traditional machine learning models, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Minh-Hao Van , Prateek Verma , Chen Zhao , Xintao Wu

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Boning Zhang , Matteo Zecchin , Mingzhao Guo , Dongzhu Liu , Osvaldo Simeone

Causal structure learning refers to a process of identifying causal structures from observational data, and it can have multiple applications in biomedicine and health care. This paper provides a practical review and tutorial on scalable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-20 Pulakesh Upadhyaya , Kai Zhang , Can Li , Xiaoqian Jiang , Yejin Kim

Domain shift in histopathology, often caused by differences in acquisition processes or data sources, poses a major challenge to the generalization ability of deep learning models. Existing methods primarily rely on modeling statistical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Kieu-Anh Truong Thi , Huy-Hieu Pham , Duc-Trong Le

The ability to understand causality significantly impacts the competence of large language models (LLMs) in output explanation and counterfactual reasoning, as causality reveals the underlying data distribution. However, the lack of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Yu Zhou , Xingyu Wu , Beicheng Huang , Jibin Wu , Liang Feng , Kay Chen Tan

Learning about cause and effect is arguably the main goal in applied econometrics. In practice, the validity of these causal inferences is contingent on a number of critical assumptions regarding the type of data that has been collected and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-03 Paul Hünermund , Elias Bareinboim
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