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We introduce a new model of random tree that grows like a random recursive tree, except at some exceptional "doubling events" when the tree is replaced by two copies of itself attached to a new root. We prove asymptotic results for the size…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Jakob E. Björnberg , Cécile Mailler

The widespread use of diffusion models has led to an abundance of AI-generated data, raising concerns about model collapse -- a phenomenon in which recursive iterations of training on synthetic data lead to performance degradation. Prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Lianghe Shi , Meng Wu , Huijie Zhang , Zekai Zhang , Molei Tao , Qing Qu

We study stochastic optimization in the context of performative shifts, where the data distribution changes in response to the deployed model. We demonstrate that naive retraining can be provably suboptimal even for simple distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Anmol Kabra , Kumar Kshitij Patel

This work identifies the existence and cause of a type of posterior collapse that frequently occurs in the Bayesian deep learning practice. For a general linear latent variable model that includes linear variational autoencoders as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Zihao Wang , Liu Ziyin

By linking conceptual theories with observed data, generative models can support reasoning in complex situations. They have come to play a central role both within and beyond statistics, providing the basis for power analysis in molecular…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-15 Kris Sankaran , Susan P. Holmes

Within the scaling laws paradigm, which underpins the training of large neural networks like ChatGPT and Llama, we consider a supervised regression setting and establish the existance of a strong form of the model collapse phenomenon, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Elvis Dohmatob , Yunzhen Feng , Arjun Subramonian , Julia Kempe

Improvement and adoption of generative machine learning models is rapidly accelerating, as exemplified by the popularity of LLMs (Large Language Models) for text, and diffusion models for image generation. As generative models become…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Matteo Marchi , Stefano Soatto , Pratik Chaudhari , Paulo Tabuada

Recursive learning -- where models are trained on data generated by previous versions of themselves -- is increasingly common in large language models, autonomous agents, and self-supervised systems. However, standard performance metrics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Zhipeng Zhang

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Hongkang Yang

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where the data distribution may shift between training and test time, and additional information about it may be available at test time. This relates to popular scenarios such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-05 Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing , Jonas Peters , Kun Zhang

Machine learning models are increasingly trained or fine-tuned on synthetic data. Recursively training on such data has been observed to significantly degrade performance in a wide range of tasks, often characterized by a progressive drift…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Nail B. Khelifa , Richard E. Turner , Ramji Venkataramanan

Recent studies identified an intriguing phenomenon in recursive generative model training known as model collapse, where models trained on data generated by previous models exhibit severe performance degradation. Addressing this issue and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Hengzhi He , Shirong Xu , Guang Cheng

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the…

Statistical learning relies upon data sampled from a distribution, and we usually do not care what actually generated it in the first place. From the point of view of causal modeling, the structure of each distribution is induced by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Giambattista Parascandolo , Niki Kilbertus , Mateo Rojas-Carulla , Bernhard Schölkopf

Model collapse, the progressive degradation of LLMs trained on their own outputs, has been characterized statistically but lacks a linguistic explanation for which structures degrade, in what order, and why. We show that iterated learning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Dongxin Guo , Jikun Wu , Siu Ming Yiu

We link conditional generative modelling to quantile regression. We propose a suitable loss function and derive minimax convergence rates for the associated risk under smoothness assumptions imposed on the conditional distribution. To…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-09 Johannes Schmidt-Hieber , Petr Zamolodtchikov

A common assumption in causal modeling posits that the data is generated by a set of independent mechanisms, and algorithms should aim to recover this structure. Standard unsupervised learning, however, is often concerned with training a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-05 Francesco Locatello , Damien Vincent , Ilya Tolstikhin , Gunnar Rätsch , Sylvain Gelly , Bernhard Schölkopf

The internet serves as a common source of training data for generative AI (genAI) models but is increasingly populated with AI-generated content. This duality raises the possibility that future genAI models may be trained on other models'…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Hung Anh Vu , Galen Reeves , Emily Wenger

Recursive Neural Networks are non-linear adaptive models that are able to learn deep structured information. However, these models have not yet been broadly accepted. This fact is mainly due to its inherent complexity. In particular, not…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2009-11-18 Alejandro Chinea

Empirical studies suggest that machine learning models often rely on features, such as the background, that may be spuriously correlated with the label only during training time, resulting in poor accuracy during test-time. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Vaishnavh Nagarajan , Anders Andreassen , Behnam Neyshabur