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The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Dan Li , Adam Clements , Christopher Drovandi

Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Tengjie Zheng , Jilan Mei , Di Wu , Lin Cheng , Shengping Gong

Modeling stochastic traffic behaviors at the microscopic level, such as car-following and lane-changing, is a crucial task to understand the interactions between individual vehicles in traffic streams. Leveraging a recently developed theory…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-21 Yun Yuan , Qinzheng Wang , Xianfeng Terry Yang

Mathematical models are essential for understanding and making predictions about systems arising in nature and engineering. Yet, mathematical models are a simplification of true phenomena, thus making predictions subject to uncertainty.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-03 Mark Hobbs , Hussein Rappel , Tim Dodwell

In this work, we introduce a simple modification of the Monte Carlo algorithm, which we call step Monte Carlo (sMC). The sMC approach allows to simulate processes far from equilibrium and obtain information about the dynamic properties of…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-12-15 Dariusz Sztenkiel

Co-optimization of both vehicle speed and gear position via model predictive control (MPC) has been shown to offer benefits for fuel-efficient autonomous driving. However, optimizing both the vehicle's continuous dynamics and discrete gear…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-29 Samuel Mallick , Gianpietro Battocletti , Qizhang Dong , Azita Dabiri , Bart De Schutter

This tutorial provides a systematic introduction to Gaussian process learning-based model predictive control (GP-MPC), an advanced approach integrating Gaussian process (GP) with model predictive control (MPC) for enhanced control in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Jie Wang , Youmin Zhang

We introduce a `virtual-move' Monte Carlo (VMMC) algorithm for systems of pairwise-interacting particles. This algorithm facilitates the simulation of particles possessing attractions of short range and arbitrary strength and geometry, an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Stephen Whitelam , Phillip L. Geissler

In recent studies on model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), incorporating uncertainty in forward dynamics is a state-of-the-art strategy to enhance learning performance, making MBRLs competitive to cutting-edge model free methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-08 Masashi Okada , Tadahiro Taniguchi

Efficient traffic signal control (TSC) is crucial for reducing congestion, travel delays, pollution, and for ensuring road safety. Traditional approaches, such as fixed signal control and actuated control, often struggle to handle dynamic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-29 Anirud Nandakumar , Chayan Banerjee , Lelitha Devi Vanajakshi

Incorporating speed probability distribution to the computation of the route planning in car navigation systems guarantees more accurate and precise responses. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dynamically selecting the number…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2019-01-21 Emanuele Vitali , Davide Gadioli , Gianluca Palermo , Martin Golasowski , Joao Bispo , Pedro Pinto , Jan Martinovic , Katerina Slaninova , Joao M. P. Cardoso , Cristina Silvano

We introduce CriticSMC, a new algorithm for planning as inference built from a composition of sequential Monte Carlo with learned Soft-Q function heuristic factors. These heuristic factors, obtained from parametric approximations of the…

Long-span bridges are subjected to a multitude of dynamic excitations during their lifespan. To account for their effects on the structural system, several load models are used during design to simulate the conditions the structure is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Gledson Rodrigo Tondo , Igor Kavrakov , Guido Morgenthal

This paper proposes a synergy of amortised and particle-based methods for sampling from distributions defined by unnormalised density functions. We state a connection between sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and neural sequential samplers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sanghyeok Choi , Sarthak Mittal , Víctor Elvira , Jinkyoo Park , Nikolay Malkin

We study sample efficient reinforcement learning (RL) under the general framework of interactive decision making, which includes Markov decision process (MDP), partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), and predictive state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Han Zhong , Wei Xiong , Sirui Zheng , Liwei Wang , Zhaoran Wang , Zhuoran Yang , Tong Zhang

In this paper, we present a Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) algorithm named \emph{Monte Carlo Probabilistic Inference for Learning COntrol} (MC-PILCO). The algorithm relies on Gaussian Processes (GPs) to model the system dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Fabio Amadio , Alberto Dalla Libera , Riccardo Antonello , Daniel Nikovski , Ruggero Carli , Diego Romeres

Reinforcement learning provides a framework for learning to control which actions to take towards completing a task through trial-and-error. In many applications observing interactions is costly, necessitating sample-efficient learning. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Charles Gadd , Markus Heinonen , Harri Lähdesmäki , Samuel Kaski

Energy-based modeling is a promising approach to unsupervised learning, which yields many downstream applications from a single model. The main difficulty in learning energy-based models with the "contrastive approaches" is the generation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Kirill Neklyudov , Priyank Jaini , Max Welling

The combinatorial sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) has been demonstrated to be an efficient complementary method to the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for Bayesian phylogenetic tree inference using biological sequences. It is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-12 Shijia Wang , Liangliang Wang

This paper is aimed at using the newly developing field of physics informed machine learning (PIML) to develop models for predicting the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) aircraft engines. We consider the well-known benchmark NASA Commercial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Sriram Nagaraj , Truman Hickok
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