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Independence and conditional independence are fundamental concepts for reasoning about groups of random variables in probabilistic programs. Verification methods for independence are still nascent, and existing methods cannot handle…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Jialu Bao , Simon Docherty , Justin Hsu , Alexandra Silva

In this article, we consider the problem of testing the independence between two random variables. Our primary objective is to develop tests that are highly effective at detecting associations arising from explicit or implicit functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Seetharaman P , Sagnik Das , Angshuman Roy

Logical inference algorithms for conditional independence (CI) statements have important applications from testing consistency during knowledge elicitation to constraintbased structure learning of graphical models. We prove that the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Mathias Niepert

We establish a fundamental connection between optimal structure learning and optimal conditional independence testing by showing that the minimax optimal rate for structure learning problems is determined by the minimax rate for conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-06 Ming Gao , Yuhao Wang , Bryon Aragam

Domain Adaptation (DA) is a typical problem in machine learning that aims to transfer the model trained on source domain to target domain with different distribution. Causal DA is a special case of DA that solves the problem from the view…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Jian Ma

Conditional independence (CI) testing arises naturally in many scientific problems and applications domains. The goal of this problem is to investigate the conditional independence between a response variable $Y$ and another variable $X$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Adel Javanmard , Mohammad Mehrabi

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

We propose a general new method, the conditional permutation test, for testing the conditional independence of variables $X$ and $Y$ given a potentially high-dimensional random vector $Z$ that may contain confounding factors. The proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-08 Thomas B. Berrett , Yi Wang , Rina Foygel Barber , Richard J. Samworth

In this paper we present a method ofcomputing the posterior probability ofconditional independence of two or morecontinuous variables from data,examined at several resolutions. Ourapproach is motivated by theobservation that the appearance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Dimitris Margaritis , Sebastian Thrun

Conditional mean independence (CMI) testing is crucial for statistical tasks including model determination and variable importance evaluation. In this work, we introduce a novel population CMI measure and a bootstrap-based testing procedure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-30 Yi Zhang , Linjun Huang , Yun Yang , Xiaofeng Shao

We postulate a principle stating that the initial condition of a physical system is typically algorithmically independent of the dynamical law. We argue that this links thermodynamics and causal inference. On the one hand, it entails…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-11-08 Dominik Janzing , Rafael Chaves , Bernhard Schoelkopf

This paper proposes new tests of conditional independence of two random variables given a single-index involving an unknown finite-dimensional parameter. The tests employ Rosenblatt transforms and are shown to be distribution-free while…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Kyungchul Song

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Peter L. Spirtes , Christopher Meek , Thomas S. Richardson

Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models.…

We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Alexander Zimin , Christoph H. Lampert

Graphical models use graphs to represent conditional independence structure in the distribution of a random vector. In stochastic processes, graphs may represent so-called local independence or conditional Granger causality. Under some…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Søren Wengel Mogensen

Conditional independence of treatment assignment from potential outcomes is a commonly used but nonrefutable assumption. We derive identified sets for various treatment effect parameters under nonparametric deviations from this conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-25 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

Causal effect identification considers whether an interventional probability distribution can be uniquely determined from a passively observed distribution in a given causal structure. If the generating system induces context-specific…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Santtu Tikka , Antti Hyttinen , Juha Karvanen

In this paper we develop non-stationary martingale techniques for dependent data. We shall stress the non-stationary version of the projective Maxwell-Woodroofe condition, which will be essential for obtaining maximal inequalities and…

We show that the stochastic independence of real-valued random variables is equivalent to the conditional uncorrelation, where the conditioning takes place over the Cartesian products of intervals. Next, we express the mutual independence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Dawid Tarłowski