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Forecasting is usually framed as a problem of model choice. This paper starts earlier, asking how much predictive information is available at each horizon. Under logarithmic loss, the answer is exact: the mutual information between the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-31 Peter Maurice Catt

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Hongkang Yang

Model-based methods and deep neural networks have both been tremendously successful paradigms in machine learning. In model-based methods, problem domain knowledge can be built into the constraints of the model, typically at the expense of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-21 John R. Hershey , Jonathan Le Roux , Felix Weninger

We introduce algorithms for online, full-information prediction that are competitive with contextual tree experts of unknown complexity, in both probabilistic and adversarial settings. We show that by incorporating a probabilistic framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Vidya Muthukumar , Mitas Ray , Anant Sahai , Peter L. Bartlett

Information theory plays a central role in establishing fundamental limits on what any learning or estimation algorithm can -- and cannot -- achieve, regardless of computational power. In this chapter, we provide an introduction to these…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Abbas El Gamal , Maxim Raginsky

Learning controllable and generalizable representation of multivariate data with desired structural properties remains a fundamental problem in machine learning. In this paper, we present a novel framework for learning generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-05 Ruixiang Zhang , Masanori Koyama , Katsuhiko Ishiguro

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

The inverse statistical problem of finding direct interactions in complex networks is difficult. In the natural sciences, well-controlled perturbation experiments are widely used to probe the structure of complex networks. However, our…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-10-24 Jialong Jiang , David A. Sivak , Matt Thomson

Interpretability is often pointed out as a key requirement for trustworthy machine learning. However, learning and releasing models that are inherently interpretable leaks information regarding the underlying training data. As such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-04 Julien Ferry , Ulrich Aïvodji , Sébastien Gambs , Marie-José Huguet , Mohamed Siala

Despite the increasing prevalence of large language models (LLMs), we still have a limited understanding of how their representational spaces are structured. This limits our ability to interpret how and what they learn or relate them to…

Predictive learning has emerged as a central paradigm for training models across diverse data domains and is increasingly viewed as a foundation for modern artificial intelligence. A common intuition for this success is that accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Aviv Ratzon , Omri Barak

A key challenge in machine learning is to explain how learning dynamics select among the many solutions that achieve identical loss values in overparameterized models - a phenomenon known as implicit bias. Controlling this bias provides a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Nicola Aladrah , Emanuele Ballarin , Matteo Biagetti , Alessio Ansuini , Alberto d'Onofrio , Fabio Anselmi

Despite the remarkable success of large large-scale neural networks, we still lack unified notation for thinking about and describing their representational spaces. We lack methods to reliably describe how their representations are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Henry Conklin

A grand challenge in machine learning is the development of computational algorithms that match or outperform humans in perceptual inference tasks that are complicated by nuisance variation. For instance, visual object recognition involves…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-03 Ankit B. Patel , Tan Nguyen , Richard G. Baraniuk

Continual learning is an emerging paradigm in machine learning, wherein a model is exposed in an online fashion to data from multiple different distributions (i.e. environments), and is expected to adapt to the distribution change.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Binghui Peng , Andrej Risteski

This paper addresses the current lack of a unified formal framework in machine learning theory, as well as the absence of robust theoretical foundations for interpretability and ethical safety assurance. We first construct a formal…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Jianfeng Xu

Learning tasks play an increasingly prominent role in quantum information and computation. They range from fundamental problems such as state discrimination and metrology over the framework of quantum probably approximately correct (PAC)…

Avoiding overfitting is a central challenge in machine learning, yet many large neural networks readily achieve zero training loss. This puzzling contradiction necessitates new approaches to the study of overfitting. Here we quantify…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Vudtiwat Ngampruetikorn , David J. Schwab

Information-theoretic (IT) measures are ubiquitous in artificial intelligence: entropy drives decision-tree splits and uncertainty quantification, cross-entropy is the default classification loss, mutual information underpins representation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Nikolaos Al. Papadopoulos , Konstantinos E. Psannis

Choosing a deep neural network architecture is a fundamental problem in applications that require balancing performance and parameter efficiency. Standard approaches rely on ad-hoc engineering or computationally expensive validation on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-01 Calvin Murdock , Simon Lucey