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A century ago, Neyman showed how to evaluate the efficacy of treatment using a randomized experiment under a minimal set of assumptions. This classical repeated sampling framework serves as a basis of routine experimental analyses conducted…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-29 Michael Lingzhi Li , Kosuke Imai

We provide sufficient conditions for the identification of the heterogeneous treatment effects, defined as the conditional expectation for the differences of potential outcomes given the untreated outcome, under the nonignorable treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-15 Keisuke Takahata , Takahiro Hoshino

We study nonasymptotic (finite-sample) confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments. In the existing literature, the effective sample sizes of nonasymptotic confidence intervals tend to be looser than the…

Selection bias is pervasive in observational studies. For example, large scale biobanks data can exhibit ``healthy volunteer bias'' when respondents are healthier and of higher socio-economic status than the population they are meant to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Yiwen Qiu , Filip Kovacevic , Shimeng Huang , Peter Spirtes , Francesco Locatello

A central goal of causal inference is to detect and estimate the treatment effects of a given treatment or intervention on an outcome variable of interest, where a member known as the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) is of growing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Zijun Gao , Yanjun Han

The call for patient-focused drug development is loud and clear, as expressed in the 21st Century Cures Act and in recent guidelines and initiatives of regulatory agencies. Among the factors contributing to modernized drug development and…

Causal analysis for time series data, in particular estimating individualized treatment effect (ITE), is a key task in many real-world applications, such as finance, retail, healthcare, etc. Real-world time series can include large-scale,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Defu Cao , James Enouen , Yujing Wang , Xiangchen Song , Chuizheng Meng , Hao Niu , Yan Liu

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that aims to improve individual patients health outcomes by recommending optimal treatments according to patients specific information. In observational studies, collected data may…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Zeyu Bian , Erica EM Moodie , Susan M Shortreed , Sylvie D Lambert , Sahir Bhatnagar

Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Céline Beji , Michaël Bon , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

Individuals often respond differently to identical treatments, and characterizing such variability in treatment response is an important aim in the practice of personalized medicine. In this article, we describe a non-parametric accelerated…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-22 Nicholas C. Henderson , Thomas A. Louis , Gary L. Rosner , Ravi Varadhan

Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Julius Owusu , Monika Avila Márquez

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that recommends treatments for patients based on their individual feature variables. In many practices, the ideal ITR for the primary outcome is also expected to cause minimal harm…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Daiqi Gao , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng

We consider the identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-differences (DiD) settings in the presence of endogenous sample selection. We first establish that the conventional DiD estimand generally…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-17 Gayani Rathnayake , Akanksha Negi , Otavio Bartalotti , Xueyan Zhao

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-09-27 Johan Vikström , Geert Ridder , Martin Weidner

Estimating the effects of interventions on patient outcome is one of the key aspects of personalized medicine. Their inference is often challenged by the fact that the training data comprises only the outcome for the administered treatment,…

Medical journals have adhered to a reporting practice that seriously limits the usefulness of published trial findings. Medical decision makers commonly observe many patient covariates and seek to use this information to personalize…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Sheyu Li , Valentyn Litvin , Charles F. Manski

Image-based precision medicine aims to personalize treatment decisions based on an individual's unique imaging features so as to improve their clinical outcome. Machine learning frameworks that integrate uncertainty estimation as part of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-11 Joshua Durso-Finley , Jean-Pierre Falet , Raghav Mehta , Douglas L. Arnold , Nick Pawlowski , Tal Arbel

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-10 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh