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If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations and low-quality output of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, obtaining proper uncertainty scores is complicated by the conditional…

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Douglas Spencer , Samual Nicholls , Michele Caprio

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Pengqi Liu , Zijun Yu , Mouloud Belbahri , Arthur Charpentier , Masoud Asgharian , Jesse C. Cresswell

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted in medical question-answering (QA) scenarios. However, LLMs can generate hallucinations and nonfactual information, undermining their trustworthiness in high-stakes medical tasks.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Yusong Ke , Hongru Lin , Yuting Ruan , Junya Tang , Li Li

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

In inverse problems, distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to obtain error bars with coverage guarantees that are independent of any prior assumptions about the data distribution. In the context of mass mapping,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-26 Hubert Leterme , Jalal Fadili , Jean-Luc Starck

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for open-ended language generation remains a critical yet underexplored challenge, especially under black-box constraints where internal model signals are inaccessible. In this paper, we introduce…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Beining Xu , Yongming Lu

Estimating the confidence of large language model (LLM) outputs is essential for real-world applications requiring high user trust. Black-box uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, relying solely on model API access, have gained…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Quan Xiao , Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Nhan H Pham , Michael Glass , Junkyu Lee

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential when employing large language models (LLMs) in high-risk domains such as clinical question answering (QA). In this work, we evaluate uncertainty estimation methods for clinical QA…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Alberto Testoni , Iacer Calixto

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Pascal Pernot

Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Jiarong Fan , Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy Vo , Nicolas Brunel

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

Large Language Models (LLMs) are commonly used in Question Answering (QA) settings, increasingly in the natural sciences if not science at large. Reliable Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is critical for the trustworthy uptake of generated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Philip Müller , Nicholas Popovič , Michael Färber , Peter Steinbach

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the localization of a sound source within adverse acoustic environments. Estimating the position of the source is influenced by various factors, such as noise and reverberation,…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-16 Vadim Rozenfeld , Bracha Laufer Goldshtein

We have recently proposed a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which UQ objectives and assumption/information set are brought into the forefront, providing a framework for the communication and comparison of UQ…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2012-02-07 M. McKerns , H. Owhadi , C. Scovel , T. J. Sullivan , M. Ortiz