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Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

Several recent papers have discussed utilizing Lipschitz constants to limit the susceptibility of neural networks to adversarial examples. We analyze recently proposed methods for computing the Lipschitz constant. We show that the Lipschitz…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-26 Todd Huster , Cho-Yu Jason Chiang , Ritu Chadha

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Deep neural networks and Vision Transformers achieve state-of-the-art performance in computer vision but are highly vulnerable to adversarial perturbations. Standard defenses often incur high computational cost or lack formal guarantees. We…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Laith Nayal , Mahmoud Mousatat , Bader Rasheed

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

In safety-critical applications such as medical imaging and autonomous driving, where decisions have profound implications for patient health and road safety, it is imperative to maintain both high adversarial robustness to protect against…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Ziquan Liu , Yufei Cui , Yan Yan , Yi Xu , Xiangyang Ji , Xue Liu , Antoni B. Chan

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fanyi Wu , Veronika Lohmanova , Samuel Kaski , Michele Caprio

Robust training methods typically defend against specific attack types, such as Lp attacks with fixed budgets, and rarely account for the fact that defenders may encounter new attacks over time. A natural solution is to adapt the defended…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Sihui Dai , Christian Cianfarani , Arjun Bhagoji , Vikash Sehwag , Prateek Mittal

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 David Stutz , Abhijit Guha Roy , Tatiana Matejovicova , Patricia Strachan , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Louis Allain , Sébastien da Veiga , Brian Staber

This paper presents a study of robust policy networks in deep reinforcement learning. We investigate the benefits of policy parameterizations that naturally satisfy constraints on their Lipschitz bound, analyzing their empirical performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Nicholas H. Barbara , Ruigang Wang , Ian R. Manchester

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

Despite the promise of Lipschitz-based methods for provably-robust deep learning with deterministic guarantees, current state-of-the-art results are limited to feed-forward Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) on low-dimensional data, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Kai Hu , Andy Zou , Zifan Wang , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson

Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

Query optimization is critical in relational databases. Recently, numerous Learned Query Optimizers (LQOs) have been proposed, demonstrating superior performance over traditional hand-crafted query optimizers after short training periods.…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Hanwen Liu , Shashank Giridhara , Ibrahim Sabek

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber
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