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We propose a new simulation-based estimation method, adversarial estimation, for structural models. The estimator is formulated as the solution to a minimax problem between a generator (which generates simulated observations using the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-09 Tetsuya Kaji , Elena Manresa , Guillaume Pouliot

Model Predictive Control (MPC) represents nowadays one of the main methods employed for process control in industry. Its strong suits comprise a simple algorithm based on a straightforward formulation and the flexibility to deal with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-04-23 Alberto Zenere , Mattia Zorzi

Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this analysis relies on deterministic models, where experiments…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Anderson V. Pires , Maliki Moustapha , Stefano Marelli , Bruno Sudret

The Kalman filter is the most powerful tool for estimation of the states of a linear Gaussian system. In addition, using this method, an expectation maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of the model. However, this…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-01 Tsuyoshi Ishizone , Kazuyuki Nakamura

This paper proposes a model predictive controller for discrete-time linear systems with additive, possibly unbounded, stochastic disturbances and subject to chance constraints. By computing a polytopic probabilistic positively invariant set…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-23 Kai Wang , Kiet Tuan Hoang , Sébastien Gros

In this paper we introduce the novel framework of distributionally robust games. These are multi-player games where each player models the state of nature using a worst-case distribution, also called adversarial distribution. Thus each…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Dario Bauso , Jian Gao , Hamidou Tembine

We study the problem of distributed Kalman filtering for sensor networks in the presence of model uncertainty. More precisely, we assume that the actual state-space model belongs to a ball, in the Kullback-Leibler topology, about the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-20 Mattia Zorzi

In this work, we present methods for state estimation in continuous-discrete nonlinear systems involving stochastic differential equations. We present the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter, the ensemble Kalman filter, and…

Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in ``trustworthy machine learning'', in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Shayan Kiyani , Hamed Hassani , George Pappas , Aaron Roth

System identification poses a significant bottleneck to characterizing and controlling complex systems. This challenge is greatest when both the system states and parameters are not directly accessible leading to a dual-estimation problem.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-08 Matthew F. Singh , Chong Wang , Michael W. Cole , ShiNung Ching

Sensing in complex systems requires large-scale information exchange and on-the-go communications over heterogeneous networks and integrated processing platforms. Many networked cyber-physical systems exhibit hierarchical infrastructures of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Hamza Anwar , Quanyan Zhu

This paper considers the state estimation problem for nonlinear dynamic systems with unknown but bounded noises. Set membership filter (SMF) is a popular algorithm to solve this problem. In the set membership setting, we investigate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-10 Xiaowei Li , Xuqi Zhang , Zhiguo Wang , Xiaojing Shen

Traditional filtering algorithms for state estimation -- such as classical Kalman filtering, unscented Kalman filtering, and particle filters - show performance degradation when applied to nonlinear systems whose uncertainty follows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Luke S. Lagunowich , Guoxiang Grayson Tong , Daniele E. Schiavazzi

Many robotic sensor estimation problems can characterized in terms of nonlinear measurement systems. These systems are contaminated with noise and may be underdetermined from a single observation. In order to get reliable estimation…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Greg Hager , Max Mintz

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set P of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable X takes on value x, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-29 Peter D. Grunwald , Joseph Y. Halpern

Estimating the state of a dynamical system from a series of noise-corrupted observations is fundamental in many areas of science and engineering. The most well-known method, the Kalman smoother (and the related Kalman filter), relies on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-24 Luca Ambrogioni , Umut Güçlü , Eric Maris , Marcel van Gerven

Online decision-making can be formulated as the popular stochastic multi-armed bandit problem where a learner makes decisions (or takes actions) to maximize cumulative rewards collected from an unknown environment. This paper proposes to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-26 Jonathan Gornet , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh , Bruno Sinopoli

The Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother are optimal for state estimation in linear dynamic systems. With nonlinear systems, the challenge consists in how to propagate uncertainty through the state transitions and output…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

The use of state estimation technique offers a means of inferring the rotor-effective wind speed based upon solely standard measurements of the turbine. For the ease of design and computational concerns, such estimators are typically built…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-01 Wai Hou Lio , Fanzhong Meng

We look at a stochastic time-varying optimization problem and we formulate online algorithms to find and track its optimizers in expectation. The algorithms are derived from the intuition that standard prediction and correction steps can be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-11 Andrea Simonetto , Paolo Massioni
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