Related papers: Reconstructing North Korea's Plutonium Production …

Nuclear archaeology research provides scientific methods to reconstruct the operating histories of fissile material production facilities to account for past fissile material production. While it has typically focused on analyzing material…

A Monte Carlo-based Bayesian inference model is applied to the prediction of reactor operation parameters of a PWR nuclear power plant. In this non-perturbative framework, high-dimensional covariance information describing the uncertainty…

This paper analyzes the sensitivity of antineutrino count rate measurements to changes in the fissile content of civil power reactors. Such measurements may be useful in IAEA reactor safeguards applications. We introduce a hypothesis…

We present neutrino-based options for verifying that the nuclear reactors at North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center are no longer operating or that they are operating in an agreed manner, precluding weapons production. Neutrino…

Antineutrinos have been proposed as a means of reactor safeguards for more than 30 years and there has been impressive experimental progress in neutrino detection. In this paper we conduct, for the first time, a case study of the…

We discuss the feasibility of using the detection of electron antineutrinos produced in fission to monitor the time dependence of the plutonium content of nuclear power reactors. If practical such a scheme would allow world-wide, automated…

We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents…

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

Bayesian networks are graphical models to represent the probabilistic relationships between variables in the Bayesian framework. The knowledge of all variables can be updated using new information about some of the variables. We show that…

A simple and rapid method is proposed for assessing the reduction in the lifetime of steel walls of the reactor vessel under neutron irradiation. The method is based on modeling the number of radiation defects by the behavior of a general…

According to current practice, the results of each run of a radiochemical solar neutrino experiment comprise an estimate of the flux and upper and lower error estimates. These estimates are derived by a maximum-likelihood procedure from the…

The Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach for nuclear systems modeling and simulation requires that the prediction uncertainty must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within acceptance criteria. A…

Our work explores North Korea's 100 MW-th Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) and its potential contributions to the country's nuclear weapons program. Built at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center, the ELWR began operations in October…

This study proposes a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties of constitutive relations inferred from noisy experimental data using inverse modelling. We focus on electrochemical systems in which charged species (e.g., Lithium ions) are…

Fusion power systems can in principle be used to make significant amounts of fissile material. To do so, an operator would have to introduce fertile material, such as uranium-238, in a suitable region of the reactor where it is exposed to…

We review an established Bayesian sampling method called sampling/importance resampling and highlight situations in nuclear theory when it can be particularly useful. To this end we both analyse a toy problem and demonstrate realistic…

A method for conducting Bayesian elicitation and learning in risk assessment is presented. It assumes that the risk process can be described as a fault tree. This is viewed as a belief network, for which prior distributions on primary event…

In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within…

The paper discusses the reconstruction of potentials for quantum systems at finite temperatures from observational data. A nonparametric approach is developed, based on the framework of Bayesian statistics, to solve such inverse problems.…

The resurgence of interest in nuclear power around the world highlights the importance of effective methods to safeguard against nuclear proliferation. Many powerful safeguarding techniques have been developed and are currently employed,…