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We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong reasoning performance through chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, yet often generate unnecessarily long reasoning paths that incur high inference cost. Recent self-consistency-based approaches…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Juming Xiong , Kevin Guo , Congning Ni , Chao Yan , Katherine Brown , Avinash Baidya , Xiang Gao , Bradley Malin , Zhijun Yin

For a LLM to be trustworthy, its confidence level should be well-calibrated with its actual performance. While it is now common sense that LLM performances are greatly impacted by prompts, the confidence calibration in prompting LLMs has…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Xinran Zhao , Hongming Zhang , Xiaoman Pan , Wenlin Yao , Dong Yu , Tongshuang Wu , Jianshu Chen

Hallucination remains a major challenge for the safe and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) in factual content generation. Prior work has explored confidence estimation as an effective approach to hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Caiqi Zhang , Xiaochen Zhu , Chengzu Li , Nigel Collier , Andreas Vlachos

Ensuring that deep learning models are well-calibrated in terms of their predictive uncertainty is essential in maintaining their trustworthiness and reliability, yet despite increasing advances in foundation model research, the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Jerry Huang , Peng Lu , Qiuhao Zeng , Yusuke Iwasawa , Yutaka Matsuo , Sarath Chandar , Edison Marrese-Taylor , Irene Li

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, they remain highly susceptible to jailbreak attacks that undermine their safety alignment. Existing defense mechanisms typically…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Yu Pan , Wenlong Yu , Tiejun Wu , Xiaohu Ye , Qiannan Si , Guangquan Xu , Bin Wu

In today's AI-assisted software engineering landscape, developers increasingly depend on LLMs that are highly capable, yet inherently imperfect. The tendency of these models to produce incorrect outputs can reduce developer productivity. To…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Hong Yi Lin , Chunhua Liu , Haoyu Gao , Patanamon Thongtanunam , Christoph Treude

Despite the remarkable reasoning performance, eliciting the long chain-of-thought (CoT) ability in large language models (LLMs) typically requires costly reinforcement learning or supervised fine-tuning on high-quality distilled data. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Zekai Zhao , Qi Liu , Kun Zhou , Zihan Liu , Yifei Shao , Zhiting Hu , Biwei Huang

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce surprisingly sophisticated estimates of their own uncertainty. However, it remains unclear to what extent this expressed confidence is tied to the reasoning, knowledge, or decision making of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Jiawei Wang , Yanfei Zhou , Siddartha Devic , Deqing Fu

Confidence calibration in LLMs, i.e., aligning their self-assessed confidence with the actual accuracy of their responses, enabling them to self-evaluate the correctness of their outputs. However, current calibration methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Yige Yuan , Bingbing Xu , Hexiang Tan , Fei Sun , Teng Xiao , Wei Li , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

Uncertainty quantification for LLMs is a key research direction towards addressing hallucination and other issues that limit their reliable deployment. In this work, we show that reasoning trace length is a simple and useful confidence…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Siddartha Devic , Charlotte Peale , Arwen Bradley , Sinead Williamson , Preetum Nakkiran , Aravind Gollakota

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xiaoou Liu , Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Chacha Chen , Zhen Lin , Hua Wei

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in high-stakes domains such as finance, healthcare, and education, where reliable multi-turn interactions with users are essential. However, existing work on confidence estimation and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Zhaohan Zhang , Chengzhengxu Li , Xiaoming Liu , Chao Shen , Ziquan Liu , Ioannis Patras

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Mark Steyvers , Heliodoro Tejeda , Aakriti Kumar , Catarina Belem , Sheer Karny , Xinyue Hu , Lukas Mayer , Padhraic Smyth

The development of Long-CoT reasoning has advanced LLM performance across various tasks, including language understanding, complex problem solving, and code generation. This paradigm enables models to generate intermediate reasoning steps,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Yanbo Wang , Yongcan Yu , Jian Liang , Ran He

While explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) empowers large reasoning models (LRMs), it enables the generation of riskier final answers. Current alignment paradigms primarily rely on externally enforced compliance, optimizing models to detect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yi Zhang , Yuxin Chen , Leheng Sheng , Dongcheng Zhang , Chaochao Lu , Xiang Wang , An Zhang

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shifted the post-training paradigm from traditional instruction tuning and human preference alignment toward reinforcement learning (RL) focused on reasoning capabilities. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Qianxi He , Qingyu Ren , Shanzhe Lei , Xuhong Wang , Yingchun Wang

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in various reasoning tasks, aided by techniques like chain-of-thought prompting that elicits verbalized reasoning. However, LLMs often generate text with obvious…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Zhihui Xie , Jizhou Guo , Tong Yu , Shuai Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to complex tasks that require extended reasoning. In such settings, models often benefit from diverse chains-of-thought to arrive at multiple candidate solutions. This requires two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Xueyan Li , Guinan Su , Mrinmaya Sachan , Jonas Geiping