Related papers: Combine and conquer: model averaging for out-of-di…

Many factors can affect the predictability of public bus services such as traffic, weather and local events. Other aspects, such as day of week or hour of day, may influence bus travel times as well, either directly or in conjunction with…

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for determining when a supervised model encounters inputs that differ meaningfully from its training distribution. While widely studied in classification, OOD detection for regression and…

A broad set of empirical phenomenon in the study of social, economic and machine behaviour can be modelled as complex systems with averaging dynamics. However many of these models naturally result in consensus or consensus-like outcomes. In…

Accuracy in fertility forecasting has proved challenging and warrants renewed attention. One way to improve accuracy is to combine the strengths of a set of existing models through model averaging. The model-averaged forecast is derived…

Online decision-makers often obtain predictions on future variables, such as arrivals, demands, inventories, and so on. These predictions can be generated from simple forecasting algorithms for univariate time-series, all the way to…

The deployment of pre-trained perception models in novel environments often leads to performance degradation due to distributional shifts. Although recent artificial intelligence approaches for metacognition use logical rules to…

Imbalance in covariate distributions leads to biased estimates of causal effects. Weighting methods attempt to correct this imbalance but rely on specifying models for the treatment assignment mechanism, which is unknown in observational…

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

Pedestrian trajectory prediction is challenging due to its uncertain and multimodal nature. While generative adversarial networks can learn a distribution over future trajectories, they tend to predict out-of-distribution samples when the…

Standard classification theory assumes that the distribution of images in the test and training sets are identical. Unfortunately, real-life scenarios typically feature unseen data (``out-of-distribution data") which is different from data…

We develop an inferential toolkit for analyzing object-valued responses, which correspond to data situated in general metric spaces, paired with Euclidean predictors within the conformal framework. To this end we introduce conditional…

The rise of location positioning technologies has generated enormous volumes of digital footprints. Translating this big data into understandable trip patterns plays a crucial role in estimating infrastructure demands. Previous studies were…

Predicting human mobility patterns has many practical applications in urban planning, traffic engineering, infectious disease epidemiology, emergency management and location-based services. Developing a universal model capable of accurately…

Machine learning models, while progressively advanced, rely heavily on the IID assumption, which is often unfulfilled in practice due to inevitable distribution shifts. This renders them susceptible and untrustworthy for deployment in…

In machine learning, we traditionally evaluate the performance of a single model, averaged over a collection of test inputs. In this work, we propose a new approach: we measure the performance of a collection of models when evaluated on a…

A wide range of price-based congestion management schemes were proposed in the literature ranging from marginal cost road pricing to trip based multimodal pricing. The underlying models were formulated under different theoretical…

Adoption of deep learning in safety-critical systems raise the need for understanding what deep neural networks do not understand after models have been deployed. The behaviour of deep neural networks is undefined for so called…

Image classification models deployed in the real world may receive inputs outside the intended data distribution. For critical applications such as clinical decision making, it is important that a model can detect such out-of-distribution…

Considering the multimodal nature of transport systems and potential cross-modal correlations, there is a growing trend of enhancing demand forecasting accuracy by learning from multimodal data. These multimodal forecasting models can…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…