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Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-15 Hang Chen , Keqing Du , Xinyu Yang , Chenguang Li

Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

Existing studies indicate that complex system degradation is characterized by degradation of multiple dependent parameters. Capturing the dependencies is crucial for accurate degradation modeling and effective degradation control. This work…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-14 Shi-Shun Chen , Shuai Gao , Xiao-Yang Li , Enrico Zio

Experiments remain the gold standard to establish an understanding of fire-related phenomena. A primary goal in designing tests is to uncover the data generating process (i.e., the how and why the observations we see come to be); or simply…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-13 M. Z. Naser , Aybike Ozyuksel Ciftcioglu

Information technology (IT) systems are vital for modern businesses, handling data storage, communication, and process automation. Monitoring these systems is crucial for their proper functioning and efficiency, as it allows collecting…

In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-01 Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Mingming Gong , Clark Glymour

Would-be practitioners of causal discovery face a dizzying array of algorithms without a clear best choice. This abundance of competitive methods makes ensembling a natural strategy for practical applications. At the same time, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Adrick Tench , Thomas Demeester

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

In this study, we address causal inference when only observational data and a valid causal ordering from the causal graph are available. We introduce a set of flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Minh Khoa Le , Kien Do , Truyen Tran

The problem of quickest detection of dynamic events in networks is studied. At some unknown time, an event occurs, and a number of nodes in the network are affected by the event, in that they undergo a change in the statistics of their…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-07-18 Shaofeng Zou , Venugopal V. Veeravalli , Jian Li , Don Towsley

We describe a novel method for modeling non-stationary multivariate time series, with time-varying conditional dependencies represented through dynamic networks. Our proposed approach combines traditional multi-scale modeling and network…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-25 Xinyu Kang , Apratim Ganguly , Eric D. Kolaczyk

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

The wide deployment of wireless industrial networks still faces the challenge of unreliable service due to severe multipath fading in industrial environments. Such fading effects are not only caused by the massive metal surfaces existing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-10-01 Qilong Zhang , Qiwei Zhang , Wuxiong Zhang , Fei Shen , Tian Hong Loh , Fei Qin

Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. Recently, a method with non-combinatorial directed acyclic constraint, called NOTEARS, formulates the causal structure learning problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Weilin Chen , Jie Qiao , Ruichu Cai , Zhifeng Hao

This paper introduces a new structural causal model tailored for representing threshold-based IT systems and presents a new algorithm designed to rapidly detect root causes of anomalies in such systems. When root causes are not causally…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Lei Zan , Charles K. Assaad , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier , Ali Aït-Bachir

Causal modeling provides us with powerful counterfactual reasoning and interventional mechanism to generate predictions and reason under various what-if scenarios. However, causal discovery using observation data remains a nontrivial task…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-06 Jawad Chowdhury , Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

This paper introduces a novel approach for modelling time-varying connectivity in neuroimaging data, focusing on the slow fluctuations in synaptic efficacy that mediate neuronal dynamics. Building on the framework of Dynamic Causal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-05 Johan Medrano , Karl J. Friston , Peter Zeidman

Wireless sensor networks monitor dynamic environments that change rapidly over time. This dynamic behavior is either caused by external factors or initiated by the system designers themselves. To adapt to such conditions, sensor networks…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2016-08-16 Mohammad Abu Alsheikh , Shaowei Lin , Dusit Niyato , Hwee-Pink Tan

We consider the problem of causal discovery (a.k.a., causal structure learning) in a multi-domain setting. We assume that the causal functions are invariant across the domains, while the distribution of the exogenous noise may vary. Under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Kasra Jalaldoust , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Uncovering cause-effect relationships from observational time series is fundamental to understanding complex systems. While many methods infer static causal graphs, real-world systems often exhibit dynamic causality-where relationships…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Tingzhu Bi , Yicheng Pan , Xinrui Jiang , Huize Sun , Meng Ma , Ping Wang