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In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting…
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has significantly changed many domains, including applied statistics. This review and vision paper explores the evolving role of applied statistics in the AI era, drawing from our…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly central to economic growth, promising new efficiencies and markets. This economic significance has sparked debate over AI regulation: do rules and oversight bolster long term growth by building…
The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) marks an existential rupture in economic and political order, dissolving the historic boundaries between labor and capital. Unlike past technological advancements, AGI is both a worker and…
Traditionally, AI has been modeled within economics as a technology that impacts payoffs by reducing costs or refining information for human agents. Our position is that, in light of recent advances in generative AI, it is increasingly…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is increasingly being discussed not only as a tool, but also as a potential subject with personal and therefore moral status. In our opinion, the currently dominant alignment strategies, which focus on…
In this paper, we examine the wide-ranging impact of artificial intelligence on society, focusing on its potential to both help and harm global equity, cognitive abilities, and economic stability. We argue that while artificial intelligence…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is set to profoundly impact the oil and gas industry by introducing unprecedented efficiencies and innovations. This paper explores AGI's foundational principles and its transformative applications,…
There has been a long-running debate in Information Technology (IT) and economics literature about the contrary arguments of IT concerning digitalization and the economic growth of nations. While many empirical studies have shown a…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the labor market by changing the task content of occupations. This study investigates the impact of AI development on the emergence of new work, employment, and wages in the United States from 2015…
We investigate the arithmetic-harmonic inequality (AHI) index, a bounded and scale-invariant measure of dispersion for positive random variables, defined through the interplay between the mean and its reciprocal. We derive analytical…
The automation of AI R&D (AIRDA) could have significant implications, but its extent and ultimate effects remain uncertain. We need empirical data to resolve these uncertainties, but existing data (primarily capability benchmarks) may not…
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, but given the pace of technological development in artificial intelligence, it is projected to reach human-level intelligence within roughly the next two decades. After that, many…
This study investigates the long-term effects of temperature variations on economic growth using a data-driven approach. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we analyze global land surface temperature data from Berkeley Earth and…
The original vision of AI was re-articulated in 2002 via the term 'Artificial General Intelligence' or AGI. This vision is to build 'Thinking Machines' - computer systems that can learn, reason, and solve problems similar to the way humans…
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures…
The Technological Singularity; that is, the possibility of achieving a General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) that surpasses human intelligence, is one of the vital paradigms of today's humanity. However, until now only opinions about its…
From early days, a key and controversial question inside the artificial intelligence community was whether Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is achievable. AGI is the ability of machines and computer programs to achieve human-level…
Current AI systems are better than humans in some knowledge dimensions but weaker in others. Guided by the long-standing vision of machine intelligence inspired by the Turing Test, AI developers increasingly seek to eliminate this "jagged"…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…