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This paper proposes an adaptive random experiment design (ARED) algorithm that can be applied to optimize the multiple factors and levels experiments. The algorithm takes real-time model error as the adaptive condition, and outputs a model…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-01 Zhou Qiao , Duan Xiaochang , Tang Wei

Adaptive experimental design (AED) methods are increasingly being used in industry as a tool to boost testing throughput or reduce experimentation cost relative to traditional A/B/N testing methods. However, the behavior and guarantees of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Tanner Fiez , Houssam Nassif , Yu-Cheng Chen , Sergio Gamez , Lalit Jain

Online A/B tests have become increasingly popular and important for social platforms. However, accurately estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) has proven to be challenging due to network interference, which violates the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Qianyi Chen , Bo Li , Lu Deng , Yong Wang

Large-scale online platforms and marketplace systems often evaluate new policies through experiments that randomize treatment across operational units (e.g., geographies, regions, or clusters) over many time periods. In these settings,…

We study how to efficiently estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) using adaptive experiments. In adaptive experiments, experimenters sequentially assign treatments to experimental units while updating treatment assignment probabilities…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Masahiro Kato , Takuya Ishihara , Junya Honda , Yusuke Narita

We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-21 Fanny Yang , Aaditya Ramdas , Kevin Jamieson , Martin J. Wainwright

Adaptive experiments such as multi-armed bandits offer efficiency gains over traditional randomized experiments but pose two major challenges: invalid inference on the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) due to adaptive sampling and low…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Daniel Molitor , Samantha Gold

Response adaptive randomization (RAR) is appealing from methodological, ethical, and pragmatic perspectives in the sense that subjects are more likely to be randomized to better performing treatment groups based on accumulating data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Tianyu Zhan , Lu Cui , Ziqian Geng , Lanju Zhang , Yihua Gu , Ivan S. F. Chan

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

Experimental design has emerged as a powerful approach for improving the sample efficiency of A/B testing, yet existing designs rely critically on correctly specified models. We study robust sequential experimental design under model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Qianglin Wen , Xiangkun Wu , Chengchun Shi , Ting Li , Niansheng Tang , Yingying Zhang , Hongtu Zhu

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged -- rather than directly assigned -- via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Miruna Oprescu , Brian M Cho , Nathan Kallus

Online experiments %in which experimental units receive a sequence of treatments over time are frequently employed in many technological companies to evaluate the performance of a newly developed policy, product, or treatment relative to a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-14 Ke Sun , Linglong Kong , Hongtu Zhu , Chengchun Shi

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) have grown in popularity in recent years, and many of their study protocols propose conducting a cost effectiveness analysis of the adaptive strategies embedded within them. The cost…

A/B testing, or controlled experiments, is the gold standard approach to causally compare the performance of algorithms on online platforms. However, conventional Bernoulli randomization in A/B testing faces many challenges such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-13 Yongkang Guo , Yuan Yuan , Jinshan Zhang , Yuqing Kong , Zhihua Zhu , Zheng Cai

Adaptive experimental designs have gained popularity in clinical trials and online experiments. Unlike traditional, fixed experimental designs, adaptive designs can dynamically adjust treatment randomization probabilities and other design…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Wenxin Zhang , Mark van der Laan

We present a new experimental design procedure that divides a set of experimental units into two groups in order to minimize error in estimating an additive treatment effect. One concern is minimizing error at the experimental design stage…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-02 Abba M. Krieger , David Azriel , Adam Kapelner

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an essential component of precision medicine. Model and algorithm-based methods have been developed within the causal inference framework to achieve valid estimation and inference. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-10 Ruohong Li , Honglang Wang , Wanzhu Tu

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al., (2022) introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating…

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