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Instrumental variables (IVs), sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome, play an important role in causal inference with unobserved confounders. However, the existing IV-based counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Junkun Yuan , Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Fei Wu , Lanfen Lin

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We investigate nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) regression given high-dimensional instruments. We propose a simple algorithm which combines kernelized IV methods and an arbitrary, adaptive regression algorithm, accessed as a black box.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 Ziyu Wang , Yuhao Zhou , Jun Zhu

We are in the middle of a remarkable rise in the use and capability of artificial intelligence. Much of this growth has been fueled by the success of deep learning architectures: models that map from observables to outputs via multiple…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-02 Jason Hartford , Greg Lewis , Kevin Leyton-Brown , Matt Taddy

This paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-20 Jad Beyhum , Samuele Centorrino , Jean-Pierre Florens , Ingrid Van Keilegom

In offline reinforcement learning (RL) an optimal policy is learned solely from a priori collected observational data. However, in observational data, actions are often confounded by unobserved variables. Instrumental variables (IVs), in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-16 Luofeng Liao , Zuyue Fu , Zhuoran Yang , Yixin Wang , Mladen Kolar , Zhaoran Wang

Many studies exploit variation in the timing of policy adoption across units as an instrument for treatment. This paper formalizes the underlying identification strategy as an instrumented difference-in-differences (DID-IV). In this design,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-13 Sho Miyaji

The problem of endogeneity in statistics and econometrics is often handled by introducing instrumental variables (IV) which fulfill the mean independence assumption, i.e. the unobservable is mean independent of the instruments. When full…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-13 Fabian Dunker

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

Many papers on high-dimensional statistics have proposed methods for variable selection and inference in linear regression models by relying explicitly or implicitly on the assumption that all regressors are exogenous. However, applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-11 Gautam Sabnis , Yves Atchadé , Prosper Dovonon

Instrumental variable methods are widely used to address unmeasured confounding, yet much of the existing literature has focused on the binary instrument setting. Extensions to continuous instruments often impose strong parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Zhenghao Zeng , Alexander W. Levis , JungHo Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke Keele

This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

In the standard data analysis framework, data is collected (once and for all), and then data analysis is carried out. However, with the advancement of digital technology, decision-makers constantly analyze past data and generate new data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-25 Jin Li , Ye Luo , Zigan Wang , Xiaowei Zhang

Despite increasing popularity in empirical studies, the integration of machine learning generated variables into regression models for statistical inference suffers from the measurement error problem, which can bias estimation and threaten…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-23 Gordon Burtch , Edward McFowland , Mochen Yang , Gediminas Adomavicius

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

In many situations, researchers are interested in identifying dynamic effects of an irreversible treatment with a time-invariant binary instrumental variable (IV). For example, in evaluations of dynamic effects of training programs with a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Bruno Ferman , Otávio Tecchio

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Emma Brunskill

Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Samhita Pal , Dhrubajyoti Ghosh

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is,…