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A record is an entry in a time series that is larger or smaller than all previous entries. If the time series consists of independent, identically distributed random variables with a superimposed linear trend, record events are positively…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 J. Franke , G. Wergen , J. Krug

Skewness and kurtosis are fundamental statistical moments commonly used to quantify asymmetry and tail behavior in probability distributions. Despite their widespread application in statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-06-23 Carlo De Michele , Samuele De Bartolo

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Gursimran Singh , Lingyang Chu , Lanjun Wang , Jian Pei , Qi Tian , Yong Zhang

Animal behavior is shaped by a myriad of mechanisms acting on a wide range of scales, which hampers quantitative reasoning and the identification of general principles. Here, we combine data analysis and theory to investigate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-25 Antonio Carlos Costa , Gautam Sridhar , Claire Wyart , Massimo Vergassola

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Naoya Hasegawa , Issei Sato

The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-08 Abhik Ghosh

Meta learning is a promising paradigm in the era of large models and task distributional robustness has become an indispensable consideration in real-world scenarios. Recent advances have examined the effectiveness of tail task risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yiqin Lv , Qi Wang , Dong Liang , Zheng Xie

In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We develop a novel characterization of extremal dependence between two cortical regions of the brain when its signals display extremely large amplitudes. We show that connectivity in the tails of the distribution reveals unique features of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-09 Mara Sherlin Talento , Jordan Richards , Raphael Huser , Hernando Ombao

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-30 Matteo Barigozzi , Giuseppe Cavaliere , Lorenzo Trapani

By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Alexander Iksanov , Oleh Iksanov

We study tail probabilities via some Gaussian approximations. Our results make refinements to large deviation theory. The proof builds on classical results by Bahadur and Rao. Binomial distributions and their tail probabilities are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-07 Laszlo Gyorfi , Peter Harremoes , Gabor Tusnady

Since the turn of the century, there has been increased interest in the application of heavy-tailed distributions, particularly stable distributions, to problems in physics and finance. Although, the tails of stable distributions provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Lev B. Klebanov , Lenka Slámová

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

Determining the causes of extreme events is a fundamental question in many scientific fields. An important aspect when modelling multivariate extremes is the tail dependence. In application, the extreme dependence structure may…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Juraj Bodik , Linda Mhalla , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Cyclic and randomized stepsizes are widely used in the deep learning practice and can often outperform standard stepsize choices such as constant stepsize in SGD. Despite their empirical success, not much is currently known about when and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-30 Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Yuanhan Hu , Umut Şimşekli , Lingjiong Zhu

It was shown that when one disposes of a parametric information of the truncation distribution, the semiparametric estimator of the distribution function for truncated data (Wang, 1989) is more efficient than the nonparametric one. On the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Saida Mancer , Abdelhakim Necir , Souad Benchaira

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev

It is not uncommon that real-world data are distributed with a long tail. For such data, the learning of deep neural networks becomes challenging because it is hard to classify tail classes correctly. In the literature, several existing…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Mengke Li , Yiu-ming Cheung , Yang Lu , Zhikai Hu , Weichao Lan , Hui Huang