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Spatio-Temporal Multivariate time series Forecast (STMF) uses the time series of $n$ spatially distributed variables in a period of recent past to forecast their values in a period of near future. It has important applications in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Zibo Liu , Zhe Jiang , Zelin Xu , Tingsong Xiao , Yupu Zhang , Zhengkun Xiao , Haibo Wang , Shigang Chen

Weinberg (2012) described a constructive algorithm for computing the marginal likelihood, Z, from a Markov chain simulation of the posterior distribution. Its key point is: the choice of an integration subdomain that eliminates subvolumes…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-01-16 Martin D. Weinberg , Ilsang Yoon , Neal Katz

Spatial confounding is how is called the confounding between fixed and spatial random effects. It has been widely studied and it gained attention in the past years in the spatial statistics literature, as it may generate unexpected results…

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous methodology for estimation and uncertainty quantification of parameters in geophysical forward models. Badlands (basin and landscape dynamics model) is a landscape evolution model that simulates…

High-dimensional mean vector testing problem for two or more groups remain a very active research area. In these setting, traditional tests are not applicable because they involve the inversion of rank deficient group covariance matrix. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-12 Roger S Zoh , Fangzheng Xie

Latent factor models are the canonical statistical tool for exploratory analyses of low-dimensional linear structure for an observation matrix with p features across n samples. We develop a structured Bayesian group factor analysis model…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-12 Shiwen Zhao , Chuan Gao , Sayan Mukherjee , Barbara E Engelhardt

The two most popular types of graphical model are directed models (Bayesian networks) and undirected models (Markov random fields, or MRFs). Directed and undirected models offer complementary properties in model construction, expressing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Brendan J. Frey

Bayesian inference requires determining the posterior distribution, a task that becomes particularly challenging when the dimension of the parameter space is large and unknown. This limitation arises in many physics problems, such as…

We develop the methodology and a detailed case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the recently introduced foundational framework of BPS to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Kenichiro McAlinn , Knut Are Aastveit , Jouchi Nakajima , Mike West

Matrix factorization (MF) has become a common approach to collaborative filtering, due to ease of implementation and scalability to large data sets. Two existing drawbacks of the basic model is that it does not incorporate side information…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-30 Cody Severinski , Ruslan Salakhutdinov

Bayesian feature allocation models are a popular tool for modelling data with a combinatorial latent structure. Exact inference in these models is generally intractable and so practitioners typically apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-28 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Andrew Roth

Factorization machines (FMs) are a powerful tool for regression and classification in the context of sparse observations, that has been successfully applied to collaborative filtering, especially when side information over users or items is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Jill-Jênn Vie , Tomas Rigaux , Hisashi Kashima

Structural equation models are commonly used to capture the relationship between sets of observed and unobservable variables. Traditionally these models are fitted using frequentist approaches but recently researchers and practitioners have…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Khue-Dung Dang , Luca Maestrini

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-06 Umberto Picchini

We develop a factor analysis for mixed continuous and binary observed variables. To this end, we utilized a recently developed multivariate probability distribution for mixed-type random variables, the Gaussian-Grassmann distribution. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Takashi Arai

We review the class of species sampling models (SSM). In particular, we investigate the relation between the exchangeable partition probability function (EPPF) and the predictive probability function (PPF). It is straightforward to define a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-12 Jaeyong Lee , Fernando A. Quintana , Peter Müller , Lorenzo Trippa

Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

Understanding the heterogeneity over spatial locations is an important problem that has been widely studied in many applications such as economics and environmental science. In this paper, we focus on regression models for spatial panel…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Tianyu Pan , Guanyu Hu , Weining Shen

We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-03 Adam Moss

Semi-structured regression models enable the joint modeling of interpretable structured and complex unstructured feature effects. The structured model part is inspired by statistical models and can be used to infer the input-output…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Daniel Dold , David Rügamer , Beate Sick , Oliver Dürr
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