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The development of coalescent theory paved the way to statistical inference from population genetic data. In the genomic era, however, coalescent models are limited due to the complexity of the underlying ancestral recombination graph. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-30 Julien Y. Dutheil

Genomic data can be used to reconstruct population size over thousands of generations, using a new class of algorithms (SMC methods). These analyses often show a recent decline in $N_e$ (effective size), which at face value implies a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-04-15 Janeesh K. Bansal , Richard A. Nichols

Studying how diverse human populations are related is of historical and anthropological interest, in addition to providing a realistic null model for testing for signatures of natural selection or disease associations. Furthermore,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-10 Jeffrey P. Spence , Matthias Steinrücken , Jonathan Terhorst , Yun S. Song

Conditional sampling distributions (CSDs), sometimes referred to as copying models, underlie numerous practical tools in population genomic analyses. Though an important application that has received much attention is the inference of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-20 Matthias Steinrücken , Joshua S. Paul , Yun S. Song

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied across macroscales. Such models typically assume that a single set of regression coefficients can adequately describe species-environment relationships and/or population trends.…

A method was developed for Bayesian inference of species phylogeny using the multi-species coalescent model. To improve the mixing properties of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that traverses the space of species trees, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-15 Bruce Rannala , Ziheng Yang

The sequentially Markov coalescent (SMC) is a Markov jump process which models correlations in local genealogies across a chromosome. It has been used as a theoretical tool for studying linkage disequilibrium and identity-by-descent, and it…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Jonathan Terhorst

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-06 Tom E. Lowe , Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock

Population genetics theory has laid the foundations for genomics analyses including the recent burst in genome scans for selection and statistical inference of past demographic events in many prokaryote, animal and plant species.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-01-22 Aurelien Tellier , Christophe Lemaire

We show that genealogical trees arising from a broad class of non-neutral models of population evolution converge to the Kingman coalescent under a suitable rescaling of time. As well as non-neutral biological evolution, our results apply…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Jere Koskela , Paul A. Jenkins , Adam M. Johansen , Dario Spano

We study weighted particle systems in which new generations are resampled from current particles with probabilities proportional to their weights. This covers a broad class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, widely-used in applied…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Jere Koskela , Paul A. Jenkins , Adam M. Johansen , Dario Spano

Phylogenetic analyses which include fossils or molecular sequences that are sampled through time require models that allow one sample to be a direct ancestor of another sample. As previously available phylogenetic inference tools assume…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-08 Alexandra Gavryushkina , David Welch , Tanja Stadler , Alexei Drummond

Phylogenetic stochastic mapping is a method for reconstructing the history of trait changes on a phylogenetic tree relating species/organisms carrying the trait. State-of-the-art methods assume that the trait evolves according to a…

Computation · Statistics 2014-03-21 Jan Irvahn , Vladimir N. Minin

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-21 Antonio Khalil Moretti , Liyi Zhang , Christian A. Naesseth , Hadiah Venner , David Blei , Itsik Pe'er

Two sequentially Markov coalescent models (SMC and SMC') are available as tractable approximations to the ancestral recombination graph (ARG). We present a Markov process describing coalescence at two fixed points along a pair of sequences…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-06 Peter R. Wilton , Shai Carmi , Asger Hobolth

Coalescents with multiple collisions (also called Lambda-coalescents or simple exchangeable coalescents) are used as models of genealogies. We study a new class of Markovian coalescent processes connected to a population model with…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-02 Clément Foucart

We consider the compact space of pairs of nested partitions of $\mathbb N$, where by analogy with models used in molecular evolution, we call "gene partition" the finer partition and "species partition" the coarser one. We introduce the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-26 Airam Blancas , Jean-Jil Duchamps , Amaury Lambert , Arno Siri-Jégousse

We review recent progress in the understanding of the role of multiple- and simultaneous multiple merger coalescents as models for the genealogy in idealised and real populations with exceptional reproductive behaviour. In particular, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-22 Matthias Birkner , Jochen Blath

Symbolic regression is a powerful tool for discovering governing equations directly from data, but its sensitivity to noise hinders its broader application. This paper introduces a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework for Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Geoffrey F. Bomarito , Patrick E. Leser

Longitudinal molecular data of rapidly evolving viruses and pathogens provide information about disease spread and complement traditional surveillance approaches based on case count data. The coalescent is used to model the genealogy that…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-07 Lorenzo Cappello , Julia A. Palacios
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