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In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-20 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-23 Shravan Kumar Sajja , Sumanta Mukherjee , Satyam Dwivedi

Counterfactual analysis is central to education market design and provides a foundation for credible policy recommendations. We develop a novel methodology for counterfactual analysis in Gale-Shapley deferred-acceptance (DA) assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Lixiong Li , Ismaël Mourifié

This work showcases a new approach for causal discovery by leveraging user experiments and recent advances in photo-realistic image editing, demonstrating a potential of identifying causal factors and understanding complex systems…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-23 Tao Li

Counterfactual explanations provide ways of achieving a favorable model outcome with minimum input perturbation. However, counterfactual explanations can also be leveraged to reconstruct the model by strategically training a surrogate model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Pasan Dissanayake , Sanghamitra Dutta

External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

The possibility of unmeasured confounding is one of the main limitations for causal inference from observational studies. There are different methods for (partially) empirically assessing the plausibility of unconfoundedness. However, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Fernando Pires Hartwig , Kate Tilling , George Davey Smith

Most counterfactual inference frameworks traditionally assume acyclic structural causal models (SCMs), i.e. directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, many real-world systems (e.g. biological systems) contain feedback loops or cyclic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Saptarshi Saha , Dhruv Vansraj Rathore , Utpal Garain

Interactive constraint systems often suffer from infeasibility (no solution) due to conflicting user constraints. A common approach to recover infeasibility is to eliminate the constraints that cause the conflicts in the system. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Sharmi Dev Gupta , Begum Genc , Barry O'Sullivan

In the estimation of causal effects, one common method for removing the influence of confounders is to adjust the variables that satisfy the back-door criterion. However, it is not always possible to uniquely determine sets of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-06 Atsushi Noda , Takashi Isozaki

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

Confounding matters in almost all observational studies that focus on causality. In order to eliminate bias caused by connfounders, oftentimes a substantial number of features need to be collected in the analysis. In this case, large p…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-30 Shinyuu Lee , Yuru Zhu

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

The estimation of causal treatment effects from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference. To avoid bias, the effect estimator must control for all confounders. Hence practitioners often collect data for as many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-05 Kristjan Greenewald , Dmitriy Katz-Rogozhnikov , Karthik Shanmugam

Discovering causal relations among observed variables in a given data set is a major objective in studies of statistics and artificial intelligence. Recently, some techniques to discover a unique causal model have been explored based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-23 Takanori Inazumi , Takashi Washio , Shohei Shimizu , Joe Suzuki , Akihiro Yamamoto , Yoshinobu Kawahara

Recommender Systems (RSs) aim to provide personalized recommendations for users. A newly discovered bias, known as sentiment bias, uncovers a common phenomenon within Review-based RSs (RRSs): the recommendation accuracy of users or items…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Le Pan , Yuanjiang Cao , Chengkai Huang , Wenjie Zhang , Lina Yao
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