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Many causal quantities are only partially identifiable due to the inherent missingness of potential outcomes, and the associated partial identification (PI) sets can be obtained by solving an optimal transport (OT) problem. Covariates often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Under the prevalent potential outcome model in causal inference, each unit is associated with multiple potential outcomes but at most one of which is observed, leading to many causal quantities being only partially identified. The inherent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Zijun Gao , Shu Ge , Jian Qian

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (PRTEs) are generally not point-identified under standard Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions when the instrument generates limited support in treatment propensity. We show that PRTE partial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Maresa Schröder , Konstantin Hess , Niki Kilbertus , Stefan Feuerriegel

Causal Optimal Transport (COT) results from imposing a temporal causality constraint on classic optimal transport problems, which naturally generates a new concept of distances between distributions on path spaces. The first application of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-31 Tianlin Xu , Beatrice Acciaio

Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

Imbalance in covariate distributions leads to biased estimates of causal effects. Weighting methods attempt to correct this imbalance but rely on specifying models for the treatment assignment mechanism, which is unknown in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Eric Dunipace

We propose novel estimators for categorical and continuous treatments by using an optimal covariate balancing strategy for inverse probability weighting. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna

We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Jianle Sun , Kun Zhang

Causal abstraction (CA) theory establishes formal criteria for relating multiple structural causal models (SCMs) at different levels of granularity by defining maps between them. These maps have significant relevance for real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Yorgos Felekis , Fabio Massimo Zennaro , Nicola Branchini , Theodoros Damoulas

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

Many causal parameters depend on a moment of the joint distribution of potential outcomes. Such parameters are especially relevant in policy evaluation settings, where noncompliance is common and accommodated through the model of Imbens &…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-17 Daniel Ober-Reynolds

Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Optimal transport (OT) is a powerful geometric and probabilistic tool for finding correspondences and measuring similarity between two distributions. Yet, its original formulation relies on the existence of a cost function between the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Ievgen Redko , Titouan Vayer , Rémi Flamary , Nicolas Courty

Optimal transport (OT) compares probability distributions by computing a meaningful alignment between their samples. CO-optimal transport (COOT) takes this comparison further by inferring an alignment between features as well. While this…

Missing exposure information is a very common feature of many observational studies. Here we study identifiability and efficient estimation of causal effects on vector outcomes, in such cases where treatment is unconfounded but partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-04 Edward H. Kennedy

The estimation of causal effects using quasiexperiments often relies on the use of unusual or serendipitous sources of exogenous variation. When the goal is estimating the same causal effects across many different settings, the same unusual…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-26 Nick Huntington-Klein
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