Related papers: Paired comparison models with strength-dependent t…
How can balance be quantified in game settings? This question is crucial for game designers, especially in player-versus-player (PvP) games, where analyzing the strength relations among predefined team compositions-such as hero combinations…
Many applications, e.g. in content recommendation, sports, or recruitment, leverage the comparisons of alternatives to score those alternatives. The classical Bradley-Terry model and its variants have been widely used to do so. The…
The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the…
Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…
The Bradley-Terry (BT) model is a common and successful practice in reward modeling for Large Language Model (LLM) alignment. However, it remains unclear why this model -- originally developed for multi-player stochastic game matching --…
The Bradley-Terry model is widely used for the analysis of pairwise comparison data and, in essence, produces a ranking of the items under comparison. We embed the Bradley-Terry model within a stochastic block model, allowing items to…
Pairwise comparison data are widely used to infer latent rankings in areas such as sports, social choice, and machine learning. The Bradley-Terry model provides a foundational probabilistic framework but inherently assumes transitive…
This article introduces the bpcs R package (Bayesian Paired Comparison in Stan) and the statistical models implemented in the package. This package aims to facilitate the use of Bayesian models for paired comparison data in behavioral…
The presence or absence of winner-loser effects is a widely discussed phenomenon across both sports and psychology research. Investigation of such effects is often hampered by the limited availability of data. Online chess has exploded in…
The seminal Bradley-Terry model exhibits transitivity, i.e., the property that the probabilities of player A beating B and B beating C give the probability of A beating C, with these probabilities determined by a skill parameter for each…
This paper introduces the Bradley-Terry Regression Trunk model, a novel probabilistic approach for the analysis of preference data expressed through paired comparison rankings. In some cases, it may be reasonable to assume that the…
For nonbalanced paired comparisons, a wide variety of ranking methods have been proposed. One of the best popular methods is the Bradley-Terry model in which the ranking of a set of objects is decided by the maximum likelihood estimates…
Australian Rules Football is a field invasion game where two teams attempt to score the highest points to win. Complex machine learning algorithms have been developed to predict match outcomes post-game, but their lack of interpretability…
Statistical inference in parametric models (e.g., the Bradley--Terry model and its variants) for paired-comparison data has been explored in the high-dimensional regime, in which the number of items involving in paired comparisons diverges.…
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry…
Frequently in sporting competitions it is desirable to compare teams based on records of varying schedule strength. Methods have been developed for sports where the result outcomes are win, draw, or loss. In this paper those ideas are…
With the advent of highly capable instruction-tuned neural language models, benchmarking in natural language processing (NLP) is increasingly shifting towards pairwise comparison leaderboards, such as LMSYS Arena, from traditional global…
Pairwise comparison models have been widely used for utility evaluation and rank aggregation across various fields. The increasing scale of modern problems underscores the need to understand statistical inference in these models when the…
Many applications such as recommendation systems or sports tournaments involve pairwise comparisons within a collection of $n$ items, the goal being to aggregate the binary outcomes of the comparisons in order to recover the latent strength…
We study density estimation from pairwise comparisons, motivated by expert knowledge elicitation and learning from human feedback. We relate the unobserved target density to a tempered winner density (marginal density of preferred choices),…