Related papers: A Time-Scaled ETAS Model for Earthquake Forecastin…
Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…
The term "basin effects" refers to entrapment and reverberation of earthquake waves in soft sedimentary deposits underlain by concave basement rock structures. Basin effects can significantly affect the amplitude, frequency and duration of…
Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…
The subsequent series of responses to big events may exhibit a synchronicity of event number, frequency and energy release in different fault zones. This synchronicity is a reliable source for probing non-intuitive geological structures,…
In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…
In this work, we report on a novel application of Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) to seismic data at scale. Based on the high waveform similarity between reoccurring earthquakes, our application identifies potential earthquakes by…
As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national level. However, the epidemic models…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
Mainshocks are often followed by increased earthquake activity (aftershocks). According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks decays as a power law over time. While aftershocks typically occur in the vicinity of the mainshock,…
Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…
Earthquake early warning systems play crucial roles in reducing the risk of seismic disasters. Previously, the dominant modeling system was the single-station models. Such models digest signal data received at a given station and predict…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Long-lead forecasting for spatio-temporal systems can often entail complex nonlinear dynamics that are difficult to specify it a priori. Current statistical methodologies for modeling these processes are often highly parameterized and thus,…
Earth observation technologies, such as optical imaging and synthetic aperture radar (SAR), provide excellent means to monitor ever-growing urban environments continuously. Notably, in the case of large-scale disasters (e.g., tsunamis and…
Earthquake-induced landslides are among the most destructive cascading hazards, yet the physical mechanisms governing their spatial distribution and size remain incompletely understood. While amplification of seismic waves by local…
Hail risk assessment is necessary to estimate and reduce damage to crops, orchards, and infrastructure. Also, it helps to estimate and reduce consequent losses for businesses and, particularly, insurance companies. But hail forecasting is…
A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full…
Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…