Related papers: A Time-Scaled ETAS Model for Earthquake Forecastin…

According to some recent analysis (M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 69}, 066106, 2004 \cite{maya1}) of earthquake data, aftershock epicenters can be considered to represent the nodes of a network where the linking scheme depends…

Short-term earthquake clustering is one of the most important features of seismicity. Clusters are identified using various techniques, generally deterministic and based on spatio-temporal windowing. Conversely, the leading rail in…

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

We present a new kind of critical stochastic finite-time-singularity, relying on the interplay between long-memory and extreme fluctuations. We illustrate it on the well-established epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model for aftershocks,…

Using the simple ETAS branching model of seismicity, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes, we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as…

The most adopted definition of landslide hazard combines spatial information about landslide location (susceptibility), threat (intensity), and frequency (return period). Only the first two elements are usually considered and estimated when…

Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…

This paper extends the existing fractional Hawkes process to better model mainshock-aftershock sequences of earthquakes. The fractional Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process model with temporal decay kernel being a Mittag-Leffler…

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

The theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us since 2010 is introduced in the present study. It is stated by the theory that the progressive failures of locked patch result in…

Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…

Earthquake aftershock identification is closely related to the question "Are aftershocks different from the rest of earthquakes?" We give a positive answer to this question and introduce a general statistical procedure for clustering…

We consider a general stochastic branching process, which is relevant to earthquakes as well as to many other systems, and we study the distributions of the total number of offsprings (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of…

In this study, we propose an analysis of the earthquake clusters that occurred in North-Eastern Italy and western Slovenia from 1977 to today. Given a mainshock generating alarm in the population, we are interested in forecasting if a…

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to have more aftershocks than spontaneous earthquakes). We define…

We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). An aftershock sequence results in this model from…

This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…

Projection of changes in extreme indices of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human-made and natural systems, including critical infrastructures and…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…