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We propose a post-hoc adaptive conformal anomaly detection method for monitoring time series that leverages predictions from pre-trained foundation models without requiring additional fine-tuning. Our method yields an interpretable anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Natalia Martinez Gil , Fearghal O'Donncha , Wesley M. Gifford , Nianjun Zhou , Dhaval C. Patel , Roman Vaculin

Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Camouflaged Object Detection (COD) demands models to expeditiously and accurately distinguish objects which conceal themselves seamlessly in the environment. Owing to the subtle differences and ambiguous boundaries, COD is not only a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Huafeng Chen , Dian Shao , Guangqian Guo , Shan Gao

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Dennis Ulmer , Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

In this work, we consider the safety-oriented performance of 3D object detectors in autonomous driving contexts. Specifically, despite impressive results shown by the mass literature, developers often find it hard to ensure the safe…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Brian Hsuan-Cheng Liao , Chih-Hong Cheng , Hasan Esen , Alois Knoll

Quantifying the data uncertainty in learning tasks is often done by learning a prediction interval or prediction set of the label given the input. Two commonly desired properties for learned prediction sets are \emph{valid coverage} and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Yu Bai , Song Mei , Huan Wang , Yingbo Zhou , Caiming Xiong

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

The black box nature of deep learning models complicate their usage in critical applications such as remote sensing. Conformal prediction is a method to ensure trust in such scenarios. Subject to data exchangeability, conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Protim Bhattacharjee , Peter Jung

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

Camouflaged Object Detection (COD) is a challenging task in computer vision due to the high similarity between camouflaged objects and their surroundings. Existing COD methods primarily employ semantic segmentation, which suffers from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Zhongxi Chen , Ke Sun , Xianming Lin , Rongrong Ji

While deep learning offers tremendous promise for scientific and medical imaging, any failures and hallucinations (predictions that do not coincide with reality) are hard to pinpoint and can have serious downstream consequences. Uncertainty…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Cassandra Tong Ye , Shamus Li , Tyler King , Kristina Monakhova

Establishing reliable image correspondences is essential for many robotic vision problems. However, existing methods often struggle in challenging scenarios with large viewpoint changes or textureless regions, where incorrect cor-…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Sicheng Li , Zaiwang Gu , Jie Zhang , Qing Guo , Xudong Jiang , Jun Cheng

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-15 Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Image segmentation is a challenging task influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty, such as the data labeling process or the sampling of training data. In this paper we focus on binary segmentation and address these challenges using…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Luca Mossina , Corentin Friedrich

Image-level contrastive representation learning has proven to be highly effective as a generic model for transfer learning. Such generality for transfer learning, however, sacrifices specificity if we are interested in a certain downstream…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Fangyun Wei , Yue Gao , Zhirong Wu , Han Hu , Stephen Lin