Related papers: Position: The Future of Bayesian Prediction Is Pri…
Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a…
Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs…
Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian…
Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently emerged as a powerful approach for Bayesian prediction tasks, approximating the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) through in-context learning. Despite their strong empirical performance…
Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) enable amortized Bayesian inference in a single forward pass, yet their internal representations remain opaque. It is unknown whether PFNs encode identifiable Bayesian structure or merely memorize…
Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed to efficiently perform tabular classification tasks. Although they achieve good performance on small datasets, they encounter limitations with larger datasets. These limitations…
Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves…
In this paper, we use Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs) as a flexible surrogate for Bayesian Optimization (BO). PFNs are neural processes that are trained to approximate the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) through in-context…
Scaling has been a major driver of recent advancements in deep learning. Numerous empirical studies have found that scaling laws often follow the power-law and proposed several variants of power-law functions to predict the scaling behavior…
Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) represent a paradigm shift in tabular data prediction. We present the principles of this new paradigm and evaluate two PFNs for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a binary treatment on a…
Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) amortize Bayesian prediction by meta-learning over a synthetic task prior, but their standard output is a posterior predictive distribution over noisy observations. For sequential decision-making, such as active…
The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of…
Neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across various problem domains, but their widespread applicability is hindered by inherent limitations such as overconfidence in predictions, lack of interpretability, and vulnerability…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…
Bayesian clustering accounts for uncertainty but is computationally demanding at scale. Furthermore, real-world datasets often contain missing values, and simple imputation ignores the associated uncertainty, resulting in suboptimal…
Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires…
Prior-Data Fitted networks (PFNs) have been very successful in tabular contexts, handling prediction tasks in context. However, they are designed for single-task inference, meaning that predicting several target values within a context…
The recently developed Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) have shown very promising results for applications in low-data regimes. The TabPFN model, a special case of PFNs for tabular data, is able to achieve state-of-the-art performance on a…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have recently received increasing attention for their ability to provide well-calibrated posterior uncertainties. However, model selection---even choosing the number of nodes---remains an open question.…
The need for function estimation in label-limited settings is common in the natural sciences. At the same time, prior knowledge of function values is often available in these domains. For example, data-free biophysics-based models can be…