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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-12 Elizabeth Hou , Earl Lawrence , Alfred O. Hero

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Jacquelyn Shelton , Przemyslaw Polewski , Alexander Robel , Matthew Hoffman , Stephen Price

Deep generative models such as conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) have shown great promise for predicting trajectories of surrounding agents in autonomous vehicle planning. State-of-the-art models have achieved remarkable accuracy…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Yongxi Cao , Julian F. Schumann , Jens Kober , Joni Pajarinen , Arkady Zgonnikov

The Koopman operator has emerged as a powerful tool for the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems as it provides coordinate transformations to globally linearize the dynamics. While recent deep learning approaches have been useful in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Shaowu Pan , Karthik Duraisamy

Simulating the long-term dynamics of multi-scale and multi-physics systems poses a significant challenge in understanding complex phenomena across science and engineering. The complexity arises from the intricate interactions between scales…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Da Long , Shandian Zhe , Samuel Williams , Leonid Oliker , Zhe Bai

The variational autoencoder (VAE) imposes a probabilistic distribution (typically Gaussian) on the latent space and penalizes the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between the posterior and prior. In NLP, VAEs are extremely difficult to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-04-15 Hareesh Bahuleyan , Lili Mou , Hao Zhou , Olga Vechtomova

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jinglin Li , Jun Tan , QI Fang , Ning Gui

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Gary Koop , Dimitris Korobilis

Time series AI is crucial for analyzing dynamic web content, driving a surge of pre-trained large models known for their strong knowledge encoding and transfer capabilities across diverse tasks. However, given their energy-intensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 ChengAo Shen , Ziming Zhao , Hanghang Tong , Dongjin Song , Dongsheng Luo , Qingsong Wen , Jingchao Ni

Deep learning has enabled algorithms to generate realistic images. However, accurately predicting long video sequences requires understanding long-term dependencies and remains an open challenge. While existing video prediction models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Vaibhav Saxena , Jimmy Ba , Danijar Hafner

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fan Xu , Yuan Gao , Kun Wang , Rui Su , Fenghua Ling , Hao Wu , Wanli Ouyang

We propose analytical mean square error (MSE) expressions for the Kalman filter (KF) and the Kalman smoother (KS) for benchmark studies, where the true system dynamics are unknown or unavailable to the estimator. In such cases, as in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Batin Kurt , Umut Orguner

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Minbo Ma , Kai Tang , Huan Li , Fei Teng , Dalin Zhang , Tianrui Li

Time series generation is critical for a wide range of applications, which greatly supports downstream analytical and decision-making tasks. However, the inherent temporal heterogeneous induced by localized perturbations present significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Jintao Zhang , Mingyue Cheng , Zirui Liu , Xianquan Wang , Yitong Zhou , Qi Liu

The ultimate aim of the study is to explore the inverse design of porous metamaterials using a deep learning-based generative framework. Specifically, we develop a property-variational autoencoder (pVAE), a variational autoencoder (VAE)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Phu Thien Nguyen , Yousef Heider , Dennis M. Kochmann , Fadi Aldakheel

As an extension of variational autoencoder (VAE), complex VAE uses complex Gaussian distributions to model latent variables and data. This work proposes a complex recurrent VAE framework, specifically in which complex-valued recurrent…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-28 Yuying Xie , Thomas Arildsen , Zheng-Hua Tan

Accurate long-term trajectory prediction in complex scenes, where multiple agents (e.g., pedestrians or vehicles) interact with each other and the environment while attempting to accomplish diverse and often unknown goals, is a challenging…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Mihee Lee , Samuel S. Sohn , Seonghyeon Moon , Sejong Yoon , Mubbasir Kapadia , Vladimir Pavlovic

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Farah Alsafadi , Mahmoud Yaseen , Xu Wu

Multivariate Time Series forecasting has been an increasingly popular topic in various applications and scenarios. Recently, contrastive learning and Transformer-based models have achieved good performance in many long-term series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Zhe Li , Zhongwen Rao , Lujia Pan , Pengyun Wang , Zenglin Xu

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) provide an effective and simple method for modeling complex distributions. However, training VAEs often requires considerable hyperparameter tuning to determine the optimal amount of information retained by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Oleh Rybkin , Kostas Daniilidis , Sergey Levine
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