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Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

Temporal networks allow representing connections between objects while incorporating the temporal dimension. While static network models can capture unchanging topological regularities, they often fail to model the effects associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Bo Kang , Tijl De Bie , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

The Hawkes process has become a standard method for modeling self-exciting event sequences with different event types. A recent work has generalized the Hawkes process to a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process, which enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Zhen Han , Yunpu Ma , Yuyi Wang , Stephan Günnemann , Volker Tresp

Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Shixiang Zhu , Haoyun Wang , Zheng Dong , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-05 Eric C. Hall , Rebecca M. Willett

Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Feng Zhou , Quyu Kong , Yixuan Zhang , Cheng Feng , Jun Zhu

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Aristeidis Panos , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

We introduce a nonlinear modification of the classical Hawkes process, which allows inhibitory couplings between units without restrictions. The resulting system of interacting point processes provides a useful mathematical model for…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-03 Stefano Cardanobile , Stefan Rotter

Link prediction models are increasingly used to recommend interactions in evolving networks, yet their impact on network structure is typically assessed from static snapshots. In particular, observed homophily conflates intrinsic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Benjamin Mark , Garvesh Raskutti , Rebecca Willett

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Guanhua Fang , Ganggang Xu , Haochen Xu , Xuening Zhu , Yongtao Guan

Temporal networks are characterised by interdependent link events between nodes, forming ordered sequences of links that may represent specific information flows in the system. Nevertheless, representing temporal networks using discrete…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Yuwei Zhu , Paolo Barucca

We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Xenia Miscouridou , François Caron , Yee Whye Teh

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Chenghao Yang , Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner
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