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We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and local extinction…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-03-21 S. Suweis , E. Bertuzzo , L. Mari , I. Rodriguez-Iturbe , A. Maritan , A. Rinaldo

We introduce a family of particle systems on sparse graphs where local interactions occur via hitting times, providing a dynamic and tractable model for default cascades in large sparsely-connected financial networks. Building on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Yucheng Guo , Qinxin Yan

We study a stochastic system of interacting neurons and its metastable properties. The system consists of $N$ neurons, each spiking randomly with rate depending on its membrane potential. At its spiking time, the neuron potential is reset…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-09 Eva Löcherbach , Pierre Monmarché

In this paper we consider coalescing random walks on a general connected graph $G=(V,E)$. We set up a unified framework to study the leading order of the decay rate of $P_t$, the expectation of the fraction of occupied sites at time $t$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-13 Jonathan Hermon , Shuangping Li , Dong Yao , Lingfu Zhang

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Carolin Forster , Marco Oesting

In this article, we consider a Branching Random Walk on the real line. The genealogical structure is assumed to be given through a supercritical branching process in the i.i.d. environment and satisfies the Kesten-Stigum condition. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Ayan Bhattacharya , Zbigniew Palmowski

A numerical study of synchronization and extinction is done for a SIRS model with fixed infective and refractory periods, in the regime of high infectivity, on one- and two-dimensional networks for which the connectivity probability decays…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-05-22 Ezequiel Arceo-May , Cristian Fernando Moukarzel

We study locally interacting processes in discrete time, often called probabilistic cellular automata, indexed by locally finite graphs. For infinite regular trees and certain generalized Galton-Watson trees, we show that the marginal…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Daniel Lacker , Kavita Ramanan , Ruoyu Wu

We study spreading processes in temporal graphs, i. e., graphs whose connections change over time. These processes naturally model real-world phenomena such as infectious diseases or information flows. More precisely, we investigate how…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Hendrik Molter , Malte Renken , Philipp Zschoche

We analyse features of the patterns formed from a simple model for a martensitic phase transition. This is a fragmentation model that can be encoded by a general branching random walk. An important quantity is the distribution of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-19 Pierluigi Cesana , Ben Hambly

We consider the problem of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model selection. We identify a set of graphs for which an efficient estimation algorithm exists, and this algorithm is based on thresholding of empirical conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-06 Animashree Anandkumar , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Alan. S. Willsky

In this paper we study threshold-one contact processes on lattices and regular trees. The asymptotic behavior of the critical infection rates as the degrees of the graphs growing to infinity are obtained. Defining \lambda_c as the supremum…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-02 Xiaofeng Xue

We present a model which displays Griffiths phase i.e. algebraic decay of density with continuously varying exponent in the absorbing phase. In active phase, the memory of initial conditions is lost with continuously varying complex…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-03-04 Priyanka D. Bhoyar , Prashant M. Gade

We revisit the random tree model with nearest-neighbour interaction as described in previous work, enhancing growth. When the underlying free Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson (BGW) model is sub-critical, we show that the (non-Markov) model with…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Pierre Collet , François Dunlop , Thierry Huillet , Arif Mardin

A bit-string model for the evolution of a population of haploid organisms, subject to competition, reproduction with mutation and selection is studied, using mean field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. We show that, depending on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Kathia M. Fehsenfeld , Ronald Dickman , Americo T. Bernardes

We study metastable behaviour in systems of weakly interacting Brownian particles with localised, attractive potentials which are smooth and globally bounded. In this particular setting, numerical evidence suggests that the particles…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-19 Zachary P. Adams , Maximilian Engel , Rishabh S. Gvalani

Aldous, Evans and Pitman (1998) studied the behavior of the fragmentation process derived from deleting the edges of a uniform random tree on $n$ labelled vertices. In particular, they showed that, after proper rescaling, the above…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Gabriel Berzunza Ojeda , Cecilia Holmgren

Consider a population evolving as a discrete-time supercritical multi-type Galton--Watson process. Suppose we run the process for $T$ generations, then sample $k$ individuals uniformly at generation $T$ and trace their genealogy backwards…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-13 Janique Krasnowska , Paul Jenkins , Adam Johansen

We study the metastable behaviour of a stochastic system of particles with hard-core interactions in a high-density regime. Particles sit on the vertices of a bipartite graph. New particles appear subject to a neighbourhood exclusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Frank den Hollander , Francesca R. Nardi , Siamak Taati

We study the graph alignment problem over two independent Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs on $n$ vertices, with edge density $p$ falling into two regimes separated by the critical window around $p_c=\sqrt{\log n/n}$. Our result reveals an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Hang Du , Shuyang Gong , Rundong Huang