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The age of big data has produced data sets that are computationally expensive to analyze and store. Algorithmic leveraging proposes that we sample observations from the original data set to generate a representative data set and then…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-13 Katelyn Gao

The issue of honesty in constructing confidence sets arises in nonparametric regression. While optimal rate in nonparametric estimation can be achieved and utilized to construct sharp confidence sets, severe degradation of confidence level…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-30 Kun Zhou , Ker-Chau Li , Qing Zhou

We present a method for computing optimal fixed-width confidence intervals for a single, bounded parameter, extending a method for the binomial due to Asparaouhov and Lorden, who called it the Push algorithm. The method produces the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Jay Bartroff , Asmit Chakraborty

A key trait of stochastic optimizers is that multiple runs of the same optimizer in attempting to solve the same problem can produce different results. As a result, their performance is evaluated over several repeats, or runs, on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Moslem Noori , Elisabetta Valiante , Thomas Van Vaerenbergh , Masoud Mohseni , Ignacio Rozada

We propose a robust optimization approach for constructing confidence bands for stochastic processes using a finite number of simulated sample paths. Our approach can be used to quantify uncertainty in realizations of stochastic processes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Timothy Chan , Jangwon Park , Vahid Sarhangian

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-28 Samuel Pawel , Alexander Ly , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

In this paper, we provide a general methodology to draw statistical inferences on individual signal coordinates or linear combinations of them in sparse phase retrieval. Given an initial estimator for the targeting parameter (some simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-29 Yisha Yao

We develop a general framework for conducting inference on the mean of dependent random variables given constraints on their dependency graph. We establish the consistency of an oracle variance estimator of the mean when the dependency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 Peter M. Aronow , Forrest W. Crawford , José R. Zubizarreta

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-03 Adel Javanmard , Andrea Montanari

Confidence sets play a fundamental role in statistical inference. In this paper, we consider confidence intervals for high dimensional linear regression with random design. We first establish the convergence rates of the minimax expected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 T. Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Randomization-based inference commonly relies on grid search methods to construct confidence intervals by inverting hypothesis tests over a range of parameter values. While straightforward, this approach is computationally intensive and can…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-17 Ian Xu

Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Nicolas Emmenegger , Mojmír Mutný , Andreas Krause

Rating systems are ubiquitous, with applications ranging from product recommendation to teaching evaluations. Confidence intervals for functionals of rating data such as empirical means or quantiles are critical to decision-making in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Robert Nowak , Ervin Tánczos

We present an optimization-based framework to construct confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems, ensuring valid one-at-a-time frequentist coverage guarantees. Our approach builds upon the now-called strict…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-18 Pau Batlle , Pratik Patil , Michael Stanley , Houman Owhadi , Mikael Kuusela

A commonly used strategy for improving optimization algorithms is to restart the algorithm when it is believed to be trapped in an inferior part of the search space. Building on the recent success of Bet-and-Run approaches for restarted…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-06-26 Thomas Weise , Zijun Wu , Markus Wagner

We consider risk-averse convex stochastic programs expressed in terms of extended polyhedral risk measures. We derive computable confidence intervals on the optimal value of such stochastic programs using the Robust Stochastic Approximation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Vincent Guigues

In this paper, we develop efficient randomized algorithms for estimating probabilistic robustness margin and constructing robustness degradation curve for uncertain dynamic systems. One remarkable feature of these algorithms is their…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-13 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the population mean of $N$ values $\{x_1, \ldots, x_N\} \subset \Sigma^N$ based on a random sample of size $n$, denoted by $X^n \equiv (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$, drawn…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Aaditya Ramdas

Randomized algorithms, such as randomized sketching or stochastic optimization, are a promising approach to ease the computational burden in analyzing large datasets. However, randomized algorithms also produce non-deterministic outputs,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Zhixiang Zhang , Sokbae Lee , Edgar Dobriban