Related papers: Post-processing of wind gusts from COSMO-REA6 with…
In this paper, we propose a density estimation algorithm called \textit{Gradient Boosting Histogram Transform} (GBHT), where we adopt the \textit{Negative Log Likelihood} as the loss function to make the boosting procedure available for the…
BICEP2 has reported the detection of a degree-scale B-mode polarization pattern in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and has interpreted the measurement as evidence for primordial gravitational waves. Motivated by the profound…
We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the…
We propose an efficient Bayesian MCMC algorithm for estimating cosmological parameters from CMB data without use of likelihood approximations. It builds on a previously developed Gibbs sampling framework that allows for exploration of the…
Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…
The evolution of the weather can be described by deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions and/or model physics result in forecast ensembles which are used for…
Heat waves resulting from prolonged extreme temperatures pose a significant risk to human health globally. Given the limitations of observations of extreme temperature, climate models are often used to characterize extreme temperature…
Emission from the interstellar medium can be a significant contaminant of measurements of the intensity and polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). For planning CMB observations, and for optimizing foreground-cleaning…
We develop an approach for Bayesian learning of spatiotemporal dynamical mechanistic models. Such learning consists of statistical emulation of the mechanistic system that can efficiently interpolate the output of the system from arbitrary…
Accurate forecasts of extreme wind speeds are of high importance for many applications. Such forecasts are usually generated by ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which however can be biased and have errors in…
This study presents a comparative analysis of three predictive models with an increasing degree of flexibility: hidden dynamic geostatistical models (HDGM), generalised additive mixed models (GAMM), and the random forest spatiotemporal…
We introduce an exact Bayesian approach to search for non-Gaussianity of local type in Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation data. Using simulated CMB temperature maps, the newly developed technique is compared against the…
We develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach for cosmic shear power spectrum inference, jointly sampling from the posterior distribution of the cosmic shear field and its (tomographic) power spectra. Inference of the shear power…
In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is…
Advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have led to the enormous recent burgeoning of spatial-temporal databases and associated statistical modeling. Here we depart from the rather rich literature in space-time modeling by…
Contextual Bayesian optimization (CBO) is a powerful framework for sequential decision-making given side information, with important applications, e.g., in wind energy systems. In this setting, the learner receives context (e.g., weather…
Ray tracing is an efficient channel modeling method. However, the traditional ray tracing method has high computation complexity. To solve this problem, an improved bounding volume hierarchies (BVH) algorithm is proposed in this paper.…
High-dimensional spatially correlated covariates are common in regression models encountered in environmental sciences and other fields. In such models, the regression coefficients often exhibit a sparse structure with spatial dependence.…