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We introduce Pawsterior, a variational flow-matching framework for improved and extended simulation-based inference (SBI). Many SBI problems involve posteriors constrained by structured domains, such as bounded physical parameters or hybrid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jorge Carrasco-Pollo , Floor Eijkelboom , Jan-Willem van de Meent

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Peter Collett , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Simone Casolo , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T Radev

X-ray spectral fitting in high-energy astrophysics can be reliably accelerated using Machine Learning. In particular, Simulation-based Inference (SBI) produces accurate posterior distributions in the Gaussian and Poisson regime for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Simon Dupourqué , Didier Barret

Computational models are invaluable in capturing the complexities of real-world biological processes. Yet, the selection of appropriate algorithms for inference tasks, especially when dealing with real-world observational data, remains a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-01 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , Adrianne L. Jenner , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

We introduce two synthetic likelihood methods for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), to conduct either amortized or targeted inference from experimental observations when a high-fidelity simulator is available. Both methods learn a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Pierre Glaser , Michael Arbel , Samo Hromadka , Arnaud Doucet , Arthur Gretton

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Jonas Arruda , Niels Bracher , Ullrich Köthe , Jan Hasenauer , Stefan T. Radev

With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-15 Stephanie M. Brown , Mattia Bulla , Hiranya V. Peiris , Nikhil Sarin , Daniel Mortlock , Stephen Thorp , Gurjeet Jagwani , Stephan Rosswog , Samaya Nissanke

Identifying tire and vehicle parameters is an essential step in designing control and planning algorithms for autonomous vehicles. This paper proposes a new method: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), a modern interpretation of Approximate…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-08-30 Ali Boyali , Simon Thompson , David Robert Wong

Precise cosmological inference from next-generation weak lensing surveys requires extracting non-Gaussian information beyond standard two-point statistics. We present a hybrid machine-learning (ML) framework that integrates field-level…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-19 Jiacheng Ding , Chen Su , Ji Yao , Le Zhang , Huanyuan Shan

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Atrideb Chatterjee , Arghya Choudhury , Sourav Mitra , Arpita Mondal , Subhadeep Mondal

We present a simulation-based inference (SBI) cosmological analysis of cosmic shear two-point statistics from the fourth weak gravitational lensing data release of the ESO Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000). KiDS-SBI efficiently performs…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-19 Maximilian von Wietersheim-Kramsta , Kiyam Lin , Nicolas Tessore , Benjamin Joachimi , Arthur Loureiro , Robert Reischke , Angus H. Wright

Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is…

Likelihood-free inference provides a framework for performing rigorous Bayesian inference using only forward simulations, properly accounting for all physical and observational effects that can be successfully included in the simulations.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-07-24 Justin Alsing , Tom Charnock , Stephen Feeney , Benjamin Wandelt

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Davide Valsecchi , Mauro Donegà , Rainer Wallny

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-02 Moonzarin Reza , Yuanyuan Zhang , Brian Nord , Jason Poh , Aleksandra Ciprijanovic , Louis Strigari

N-body simulations are the most powerful method to study the non-linear evolution of large-scale structure. However, they require large amounts of computational resources, making unfeasible their direct adoption in scenarios that require…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-04-14 Miguel Conceição , Alberto Krone-Martins , Antonio da Silva , Ángeles Moliné

Scientific modeling and engineering applications rely heavily on parameter estimation methods to fit physical models and calibrate numerical simulations using real-world measurements. In the absence of analytic statistical models with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Ruoxi Jiang , Peter Y. Lu , Rebecca Willett

From the nano-scale to the macro-scale, biological tissue is spatially heterogeneous. Even when tissue behavior is well understood, the exact subject specific spatial distribution of material properties is often unknown. And, when…

Tissues and Organs · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-02 Emma Lejeune , Bill Zhao