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We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Yeguang Chi , Qionghua , Chu , Wenyan Hao

We propose a novel method to extract global and local features of functional time series. The global features concerning the dominant modes of variation over the entire function domain, and local features of function variations over…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-03 Yang Yang , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang

Functional data analyses typically proceed by smoothing, followed by functional PCA. This paradigm implicitly assumes that rough variation is due to nuisance noise. Nevertheless, relevant functional features such as time-localised or short…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 Marie-Hélène Descary , Victor M. Panaretos

In this paper, we introduce a novel method for predicting intraday instantaneous volatility based on Ito semimartingale models using high-frequency financial data. Several studies have highlighted stylized volatility time series features,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-16 Sung Hoon Choi , Donggyu Kim

Since some years ago, use of Feedback Control Scheduling Algorithm (FCSA) in the control scheduling co-design of multiprocessor embedded system has increased. FCSA provides Quality of Service (QoS) in terms of overall system performance and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-10-11 Oumair Naseer , Rana Atif Ali Khan

Traditional principal component analysis (PCA) is well known in high-dimensional data analysis, but it requires to express data by a matrix with observations to be continuous. To overcome the limitations, a new method called flexible PCA…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-17 Tonglin Zhang , Baijian Yang , Qianqian Song , Jing Su

Factor models have been widely used in economics and finance. However, the heavy-tailed nature of macroeconomic and financial data is often neglected in the existing literature. To address this issue and achieve robustness, we propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-30 Yong He , Lingxiao Li , Dong Liu , Wen-Xin Zhou

This paper will propose a novel machine learning based portfolio management method in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Previous researchers mainly focus on the prediction of the movement for specific cryptocurrency such as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Zijiang Yang

This work aims at performing Functional Principal Components Analysis (FPCA) with Horvitz-Thompson estimators when the observations are curves collected with survey sampling techniques. One important motivation for this study is that FPCA…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-19 Hervé Cardot , Mohamed Chaouch , Camelia Goga , Catherine Labruère

This research analyses high-frequency data of the cryptocurrency market in regards to intraday trading patterns related to algorithmic trading and its impact on the European cryptocurrency market. We study trading quantitatives such as…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-10 Alla A. Petukhina , Raphael C. G. Reule , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

In this paper, we propose two nonparametric methods used in the forecasting of functional time-dependent data, namely functional singular spectrum analysis recurrent forecasting and vector forecasting. Both algorithms utilize the results of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-28 Jordan Trinka , Hossein Haghbin , Mehdi Maadooliat

This paper seeks to forecast intraday volatility curves for major foreign exchange (FX) currencies using functional GARCH models. Intraday return curves are observed at a daily frequency, yet preserve the full high-frequency trading…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Fearghal Kearney , Han Lin Shang , Yuqian Zhao

Functional Principal Components Analysis (FPCA) provides a parsimonious, semi-parametric model for multivariate, sparsely-observed functional data. Frequentist FPCA approaches estimate principal components (PCs) from the data, then…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Joseph Sartini , Scott Zeger , Ciprian Crainiceanu

Stock market and cryptocurrency forecasting is very important to investors as they aspire to achieve even the slightest improvement to their buy or hold strategies so that they may increase profitability. However, obtaining accurate and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Hakan Pabuccu , Adrian Barbu

Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is a well-recognized nonlinear dimensionality reduction method that has been widely used in nonlinear fault detection tasks. As a kernel trick-based method, KPCA inherits two major problems. First,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Zelin Ren , Xuebing Yang , Yuchen Jiang , Wensheng Zhang

This letter revisits the informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market. In particular we analyze the time-varying behavior of long memory of returns on Bitcoin and volatility 2011 until 2017, using the Hurst exponent. Our results are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-26 Aurelio F. Bariviera

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a dimensionality reduction technique that can boost efficiency of machine learning models that deal with probability density functions, e.g. Bayesian neural networks. Algorithms that implement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-10 Mahdi Nazemi , Shahin Nazarian , Massoud Pedram

Functional data analysis is an important research field in statistics which treats data as random functions drawn from some infinite-dimensional functional space, and functional principal component analysis (FPCA) based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Hang Zhou , Dongyi Wei , Fang Yao

PCA is often used to visualize data when the rows and the columns are both of interest. In such a setting there is a lack of inferential methods on the PCA output. We study the asymptotic variance of a fixed-effects model for PCA, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-30 Julie Josse , Stefan Wager , François Husson

Kernel methods are powerful learning methodologies that allow to perform non-linear data analysis. Despite their popularity, they suffer from poor scalability in big data scenarios. Various approximation methods, including random feature…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-14 Bharath Sriperumbudur , Nicholas Sterge