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Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson , Vadim Sokolov , Daniel Zantedeschi

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Bolian Li , Zige Zheng , Changqing Zhang

We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Pierre Humbert , Gilles Blanchard

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Zihao Tang , Boyuan Wang , Chuan Wen , Jiaye Teng

This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Yuanchang Ye

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), but their inherent unreliability, such as hallucination and overconfidence, limits their application in high-risk domains. To address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Guang Yang , Xinyang Liu

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

Point forecasting for graph-structured multivariate time series is a fundamental problem, but rigorous uncertainty quantification for such predictions is still underexplored. Conformal prediction (CP) offers uncertainty estimation with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ruichao Guo , Xingyao Han , Luo Wenshui , Zhe Liu , Chen Gong , Hesheng Wang

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss-controlling prediction for more general cases. By comparison,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Junzhi Shi , Pingping Wang , Shuo Zhuang , Hongyue Li

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-16 Raphael Rossellini , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett

Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular frequentist framework for representing uncertainty by providing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true label with a user-adjustable probability. In most applications, CP operates on…

The merit of Conformal Prediction (CP), as a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification, depends on generating prediction sets that are efficient, reflected in small average set sizes, while adaptive, meaning they signal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Navid Akhavan Attar , Hesam Asadollahzadeh , Ling Luo , Uwe Aickelin

The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal prediction (CP), which transforms an arbitrary base…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Fredrik Hellström

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a variety of tasks, yet they often suffer from unreliable probability estimates. As a result, they can be overconfident in their predictions. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu