Related papers: The influence of data gaps and outliers on resilie…
Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…
A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…
Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behind these indicators originates from approximating the…
Social ecological systems are often difficult to investigate and manage because of their inherent complexity1. Small variations in external drivers can lead to abrupt changes associated with instabilities and bifurcations in the underlying…
Repeated measures of biomarkers have the potential of explaining hazards of survival outcomes. In practice, these measurements are intermittently measured and are known to be subject to substantial measurement error. Joint modelling of…
Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…
Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…
Stability is among the most important concepts in dynamical systems. Local stability is well-studied, whereas determining how "globally stable" a nonlinear system is very challenging. Over the last few decades, many different ideas have…
Distance covariance is a popular measure of dependence between random variables. It has some robustness properties, but not all. We prove that the influence function of the usual distance covariance is bounded, but that its breakdown value…
Measuring the statistical dependence between observed signals is a primary tool for scientific discovery. However, biological systems often exhibit complex non-linear interactions that currently cannot be captured without a priori knowledge…
Many systems on our planet are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across a "tipping point," such as mass extinctions in ecological networks, cascading failures in infrastructure systems,…
Conditions such as insomnia, cardiac arrhythmia and jet-lag share a common feature: they are all related to the ability of biological systems to synchronize with the day-night cycle. When organisms lose resilience, this ability of…
Prior research has shown that autocorrelation and variance in voltage measurements tend to increase as power systems approach instability. This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which these statistical indicators provide reliable…
Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…
Real-time forecasting is important to the society. It uses continuous data streams to update forecasts for sustained accuracy. But the data source is vulnerable to attacks or accidents and the dynamics of forecasting failure and recovery…
As a rule statistical measures are often vulnerable to the presence of outliers and spatial correlation coefficients, critical in the assessment of spatial data, remain susceptible to this inherent flaw. In contexts where data originates…
Resilience is widely recognized as an important design goal though it is one that seems to escape a general and consensual understanding. Often mixed up with other system attributes; traditionally used with different meanings in as many…
Due to the increasing share of renewable energy resources and the emergence of couplings of different energy carrier grids, which may support the electricity networks by providing additional flexibility, conducting research on the…
Measuring the statistical dependence between observed signals is a primary tool for scientific discovery. However, biological systems often exhibit complex non-linear interactions that currently cannot be captured without a priori knowledge…
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…