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Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Amin Meghrazi , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

Conformal prediction (CP) and its extension, conformal risk control (CRC), are established frameworks for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning through formal guarantees. However, recent breakthroughs in artificial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem , Kevin Zhang , Wei Cui , Marc T. Law , Kin Kwan Leung

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Background: In silico drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction plays an integral role in drug repositioning: the discovery of new uses for existing drugs. One popular method of drug repositioning is network-based DTI prediction, which uses…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-02 Yiding Lu , Yufan Guo , Anna Korhonen

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, offering reliable predictions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. When applied to classification, CP produces a prediction set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Floris den Hengst , Inès Blin , Majid Mohammadi , Syed Ihtesham Hussain Shah , Taraneh Younesian

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

Drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction is a challenging, albeit essential task in drug repurposing. Learning on graph models have drawn special attention as they can significantly reduce drug repurposing costs and time commitment.…

The discovery of drug-target interactions (DTIs) is a pivotal process in pharmaceutical development. Computational approaches are a promising and efficient alternative to tedious and costly wet-lab experiments for predicting novel DTIs from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Bin Liu , Jin Wang , Kaiwei Sun , Grigorios Tsoumakas

Clustering and prediction are two primary tasks in the fields of unsupervised and supervised learning, respectively. Although much of the recent advances in machine learning have been centered around those two tasks, the interdependent,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Yifeng Shi , Christopher M. Bender , Junier B. Oliva , Marc Niethammer

Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, enhancing the prediction reliability under non-exchangeability. This study demonstrates that these desirable properties of ACI do not require the use of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-02 Johan Hallberg Szabadváry , Tuwe Löfström

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yichen Shen , Mengxin Yu

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Clustering is the task of gathering similar data samples into clusters without using any predefined labels. It has been widely studied in machine learning literature, and recent advancements in deep learning have revived interest in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Mohammadreza Sadeghi , Hadi Hojjati , Narges Armanfard

In many classification applications, the prediction of a deep neural network (DNN) based classifier needs to be accompanied by some confidence indication. Two popular approaches for that aim are: 1) Calibration: modifies the classifier's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer