Related papers: An AI Capability Threshold for Rent-Funded Univers…
The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) labor, including AI agents and autonomous systems operating at near-zero marginal cost, reduces the marginal productivity of human labor, ultimately pushing wages toward zero. As AGI…
In the face of shifting means of production from manual human labor to labor automation, one solution that stands out is the advancement of a Universal Basic Income, UBI to every citizen from the government with no strings attached. The…
The rapid expansion of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming work, creativity, and economic security in ways that extend beyond automation and productivity. This paper examines four interconnected dimensions of…
The integration of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) into economic production represents a transformative shift with profound implications for labor markets, income distribution, and technological growth. This study extends the Constant…
The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) marks an existential rupture in economic and political order, dissolving the historic boundaries between labor and capital. Unlike past technological advancements, AGI is both a worker and…
This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting…
We introduce the Economic Productivity of Energy (EPE), GDP generated per unit of energy consumed, as a quantitative lens to assess the sustainability of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. Historical evidence shows that the first…
It is widely assumed that increases in economic productivity necessarily lead to economic growth. In this paper, it is shown that this is not always the case. An idealized model of an economy is presented in which a new technology allows…
We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We…
The race for artificial intelligence (AI) dominance often prioritizes scale over efficiency. Hyper-scaling is the common industry approach: larger models, more data, and as many computational resources as possible. Using more resources is a…
The effects of automation on our economy and society are more palpable than ever, with nearly half of jobs at risk of being fully executed by machines over the next decade or two. Policymakers and scholars alike have championed the…
For millennia, human cognition was the primary engine of progress on Earth. As AI decouples cognition from biology, the marginal cost of measurable execution falls to zero, absorbing any labor capturable by metrics--including creative,…
We characterize the optimal tax policy in an economy with human manual and cognitive labor, physical capital, and artificial intelligence (AI). Extending the dynamic taxation setup of Slavik and Yazici (2014), we find that it is optimal to…
Work is fundamental to societal prosperity and mental health, providing financial security, identity, purpose, and social integration. The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has catalysed debate on job displacement. Some…
Generative AI compresses within-task skill differences while shifting economic value toward concentrated complementary assets, creating an apparent paradox: the technology that equalizes individual performance may widen aggregate…
This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of…
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands as a transformative force that presents a paradox; it offers unprecedented opportunities for productivity growth while potentially posing significant threats to economic stability and societal…
The prevailing discourse around AI ethics lacks the language and formalism necessary to capture the diverse ethical concerns that emerge when AI systems interact with individuals. Drawing on Sen and Nussbaum's capability approach, we…
AI systems increasingly produce fluent, correct, end-to-end outcomes. Over time, this erodes users' ability to explain, verify, or intervene. We define this divergence as the Capability-Comprehension Gap: a decoupling where assisted…
Frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems could pose increasing risks to public safety and security. But what level of risk is acceptable? One increasingly popular approach is to define capability thresholds, which describe AI…